FESIM: A Modular Forest Economic Simulation Model

FESIM: A Modular Forest Economic Simulation Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article FESIM: A Modular Forest Economic Simulation Model Cornelius Regelmann, Hermann Englert This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8388243/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Central European forestry often operates on production cycles of 100–200 years, far exceeding those of most land-use sectors. Silvicultural and political decisions taken today yield observable economic consequences only after decades or centuries, making direct empirical evaluation challenging for forest practitioners and policy-makers. This challenge has intensified with the shift towards conservation- and ecosystem services-oriented policy, which must reconcile roundwood production with biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services under stringent national and supranational legislation. The Forest Economic Simulation Model (FESIM) is a dynamic, modular framework that generates integrated ecological and economic projections for forest enterprises under varying scenarios. Fully formulated in linear algebra using explicit matrices and vectors, the model ensures complete reproducibility and interpretability. The use of a single forest inventory snapshot or management-plan data, augmented with (rudimentary) inputs such as area, yield tables, survival probabilities, and roundwood prices, enables FESIM to simulate the five-year time-step development of stand areas, roundwood volumes, carbon pools, and key economic metrics. The model integrates a Markov chain area-transition module with parameterised sigmoid functions to project growth and harvesting volumes, which are then fed into a valuation module employing multi-tier contribution-margin accounting. This approach captures profitability at successive cost allocation levels, ranging from stumpage values to net returns, thereby enabling the quantification of opportunity costs associated with conservation-oriented practices and policies. Optional submodules address habitat-tree retention and the dynamics of coarse woody debris, thereby establishing a direct linkage between biodiversity and carbon, on the one hand, and economic outputs, on the other. The parsimonious data requirements and deterministic structure ensure that FESIM is transparent, reproducible, and computationally efficient, facilitating its application in data-scarce regions and routine decision-making. The overarching objective of FESIM is to integrate the ecological and economic dimensions, thereby providing a versatile decision-support tool capable of evaluating long-term trade-offs and sustainability outcomes across diverse management, market, and policy scenarios. Forest economic simulation Markov chain forest model Yield table functions Habitat tree retention Coarse woody debris Carbon accounting Sustainable forest management decision support Policy impact assessment Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 29 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 27 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 03 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 12 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 04 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 23 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 17 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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