21st Century Bio-climatic Refugia for Terrestrial Mammal Biodiversity

21st Century Bio-climatic Refugia for Terrestrial Mammal Biodiversity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article 21 st Century Bio-climatic Refugia for Terrestrial Mammal Biodiversity Earl Saxon, Paul Elsen, Juli Li, Stuart Sheppard, Blake Simmons, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9409439/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Mapping refugia -- places where current biodiversity can persist, adapt and, in due course, disperse from -- identifies opportunities for conservation management to attenuate the pace and severity of ecosystem simplification and biodiversity loss [1, 2]. We model the current and future distribution of Holdridge Life Zones [3] (HLZs) to identify areas where current bioclimatic conditions are expected to persist [4]. Even under the most severe 21st century climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), current bioclimatic conditions persist across many areas that are ecologically intact [5] as measured by the Human Footprint Index [6] (HFI). The extent of refugia ranges from 1% in the tundra biome to 33% in the tropics and 34% of polar regions. Refugia are underrepresented in protected areas. We introduce a Biodiversity Density Index (BDI), analogous to the Biodiversity Intactness Index [7, 8] (BII), to rank refugia by their mammal biodiversity and propose BDI as an index to monitor the effectiveness in retaining biodiversity over time. Our results can help prioritize mutually supportive strategies to attenuate the sixth mass extinction event . These include enhanced protection of large refugia from human impacts, climate-adaptive management of small refugia, and monitoring the pace of biodiversity changes at multiple scales. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9409439","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":623055878,"identity":"27dfa4f9-1668-49a7-8575-3c38fa973a83","order_by":0,"name":"Earl Saxon","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA30lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACxgMQmhlES8gQpQeqhS0BpIWHFC08BmCSoHJ+9rMPDjD8sUvsl+75/OpGjQUPA/vhoxvwaZHsSTc4wNiWbCw55+w265xjQIfxpKXdwKfF4EAawwHGBmY5gxu524xz2IBaJHjM8GqxP/8M6Jc/9TwGN3KeGef8I0KLgQTQFga2w0Bbcpgf57YRoUXiBtCWxLbjxpIz0syYc/skeNgI+YW/P43xwYc/1Yn9EsmPP+d8q5PjZz98DK8WMEiAUGwSYJKgciTA/IEU1aNgFIyCUTByAACe4EUYln1kiQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Queensland","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Earl","middleName":"","lastName":"Saxon","suffix":""},{"id":623055879,"identity":"15cff8d2-a58c-4c8d-b4fb-0271a596b404","order_by":1,"name":"Paul Elsen","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9953-7961","institution":"Wildlife Conservation Society","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paul","middleName":"","lastName":"Elsen","suffix":""},{"id":623055880,"identity":"6bb36da7-ccf1-48a4-94d3-9c913075ba33","order_by":2,"name":"Juli Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Queensland","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Juli","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":623055881,"identity":"9b2cb5ee-236b-4ce0-b430-f9104639f2a3","order_by":3,"name":"Stuart Sheppard","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Forest Inform Partners","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stuart","middleName":"","lastName":"Sheppard","suffix":""},{"id":623055882,"identity":"24096e46-95d1-4f9e-b78d-36276b54b6d0","order_by":4,"name":"Blake Simmons","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tampa Bay Estuary Program","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Blake","middleName":"","lastName":"Simmons","suffix":""},{"id":623055883,"identity":"13efdcb1-30fc-46f4-8ac6-86062eee774c","order_by":5,"name":"Brooke Williams","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Newcastle","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brooke","middleName":"","lastName":"Williams","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-14 02:10:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9409439/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9409439/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107490475,"identity":"56b8b295-e490-4053-87a1-98c85b118b31","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-22 02:52:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1065608,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"NatureMSNoahsParks260414.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9409439/v1_covered_2124be93-3dc1-4450-9cca-b86ed7b3cb9b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e21\u003csup\u003est \u003c/sup\u003eCentury Bio-climatic Refugia for Terrestrial Mammal Biodiversity\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9409439/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9409439/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eMapping refugia -- places where current biodiversity can persist, adapt and, in due course, disperse from -- identifies opportunities for conservation management to attenuate the pace and severity of ecosystem simplification and biodiversity loss [1, 2]. 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