Numerical evaluation of fault reactivation and leakage risk in CO2 geological storage

Numerical evaluation of fault reactivation and leakage risk in CO2 geological storage | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Numerical evaluation of fault reactivation and leakage risk in CO2 geological storage Nenghao Wang, Wei Lian, Jun Li, Yanxian Wu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7107158/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 15 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Environmental Earth Sciences → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The injection and long-term storage of CO 2 can alter pore pressure in fault zones, potentially reactivating faults and significantly increasing leakage risks. Current research on CO 2 leakage along faults primarily relies on 2D models, which fail to fully account for fluid flow and diffusion in 3D porous media or accurately represent the impact of 3D features on pore pressure. Using the Ordos Basin onshore saline aquifer project as a case study, this research establishes a model to analyze CO 2 leakage and fault reactivation risks by incorporating actual engineering and geological parameters. The study investigates the dynamic pressure response in fault zones during long-term CO 2 storage, calculates leakage rates under varying injection and fault property conditions, and identifies primary and secondary factors influencing fault reactivation. Results indicate that early CO 2 injection leads to pressure buildup in the fault zone, peaking with continued injection before gradually declining as CO 2 migrates and dissolves, with pressure dropping rapidly post-injection. Under baseline conditions, CO 2 leakage rates along faults range between 0.1% and 1%, with sensitivity to parameters ranked as follows: distance from injection point > fault zone thickness > fault zone permeability > fault dip angle > injection rate. Fault reactivation risk peaks at a 60° dip angle, while other key influencing factors include injection rate, distance from injection point, fault zone permeability, and thickness. The distance from the injection point emerges as the most critical parameter, capable of driving leakage rates beyond safe thresholds and pushing fault reactivation coefficients to critical levels. These findings offer valuable guidance for China’s upcoming large-scale geological CO 2 storage initiatives. CO2 geological storage Pressure accumulation fault Leakage proportion fault reactivation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 15 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Environmental Earth Sciences → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 24 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 15 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 14 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 12 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7107158","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":511709874,"identity":"f990e162-2ff3-4ea4-a7a1-17536525cbda","order_by":0,"name":"Nenghao Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Petroleum (Beijing)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nenghao","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":511709876,"identity":"0d833d99-eefe-4d08-ae6e-3d34bcee8f20","order_by":1,"name":"Wei Lian","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBElEQVRIie3RMUvEMBTA8RcC7fJK1xTFz/Dg1oN+AT9EjoNOGXSRjgdCbrF7Fj+ECNIxR8ApOhd00OUmhcot3qT10EGk7Y0O+UMID/KDkACEQv+wlHPr3sspRvG57Wb5vQbKlnrmwBeHKd7+HB8h5P3EMe2mmTmm/Qg0ktyp5kgNvm2SuoA0VgTbul8wI6Uz9xHSQ3V9kHgF2cULscr3Ey6ktXiGSI93NzzRJVCjiDPdTyIxW1iMRHcxtd6RfIwgOnCoCTOjoo4oIDFCRKxhZbzE7pEn2aUvUPj1yaoaILlLN21bfuTdVz63r/X8KF3Or562A+R3bAH4tdt9wY6EQqFQ6E+fv/5VeRkG/YwAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization and Storage of Carbon Dioxide · China University of Petroleum (Beijing) at Karamay","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wei","middleName":"","lastName":"Lian","suffix":""},{"id":511709878,"identity":"8272f776-2566-4748-9c08-02e247ac3973","order_by":2,"name":"Jun Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Petroleum (Beijing)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jun","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":511709879,"identity":"72599605-6ad9-47e9-8311-b7c856abd2d4","order_by":3,"name":"Yanxian Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Oil Production Technology Research Institute, PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yanxian","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-12 09:23:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7107158/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7107158/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-026-12939-9","type":"published","date":"2026-04-15T15:56:53+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107350771,"identity":"fe03b53f-277c-4f6f-a9fc-3762eb507189","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-20 16:03:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1364688,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NumericalevaluationoffaultreactivationandleakageriskinCO2geologicalstorage.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7107158/v1_covered_81f92f1c-29d1-4d42-9149-a1accffcc1c5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Numerical evaluation of fault reactivation and leakage risk in CO2 geological storage","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-earth-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"enge","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Earth Sciences](https://www.springer.com/journal/12665)","snPcode":"12665","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12665/3","title":"Environmental Earth Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"CO2 geological storage, Pressure accumulation, fault, Leakage proportion, fault reactivation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7107158/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7107158/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe injection and long-term storage of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e can alter pore pressure in fault zones, potentially reactivating faults and significantly increasing leakage risks. Current research on CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e leakage along faults primarily relies on 2D models, which fail to fully account for fluid flow and diffusion in 3D porous media or accurately represent the impact of 3D features on pore pressure. Using the Ordos Basin onshore saline aquifer project as a case study, this research establishes a model to analyze CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e leakage and fault reactivation risks by incorporating actual engineering and geological parameters. The study investigates the dynamic pressure response in fault zones during long-term CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e storage, calculates leakage rates under varying injection and fault property conditions, and identifies primary and secondary factors influencing fault reactivation. Results indicate that early CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e injection leads to pressure buildup in the fault zone, peaking with continued injection before gradually declining as CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e migrates and dissolves, with pressure dropping rapidly post-injection. Under baseline conditions, CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e leakage rates along faults range between 0.1% and 1%, with sensitivity to parameters ranked as follows: distance from injection point\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;fault zone thickness\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;fault zone permeability\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;fault dip angle\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;injection rate. Fault reactivation risk peaks at a 60\u0026deg; dip angle, while other key influencing factors include injection rate, distance from injection point, fault zone permeability, and thickness. The distance from the injection point emerges as the most critical parameter, capable of driving leakage rates beyond safe thresholds and pushing fault reactivation coefficients to critical levels. These findings offer valuable guidance for China\u0026rsquo;s upcoming large-scale geological CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e storage initiatives.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Numerical evaluation of fault reactivation and leakage risk in CO2 geological storage","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-11 14:44:21","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7107158/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-12-24T16:07:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-15T12:29:18+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-01T05:36:25+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"119214789522904738951932728626270408987","date":"2025-11-25T13:05:23+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"197730785420311436970294147793160445246","date":"2025-11-23T12:16:07+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"205219374998006678603934440500013149829","date":"2025-10-27T09:40:45+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"120659621785058857383400893567474913364","date":"2025-09-07T13:27:09+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-04T12:59:01+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-07-14T06:41:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-07-14T06:40:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Earth Sciences","date":"2025-07-12T09:20:09+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-earth-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"enge","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Earth Sciences](https://www.springer.com/journal/12665)","snPcode":"12665","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12665/3","title":"Environmental Earth Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"6a5f7a5d-a718-4c99-aeb6-a9fb4857a59e","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 11th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-20T16:01:35+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7107158","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-026-12939-9","journal":{"identity":"environmental-earth-sciences","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Environmental Earth Sciences"},"publishedOn":"2026-04-15 15:56:53","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 15th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-11 14:44:21","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s12665-026-12939-9","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-026-12939-9","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7107158","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7107158","identity":"rs-7107158","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}