Evaluating Causal Psychological Models: A Study of Language Theories of Autism Using a Large Sample

We used a large convenience sample (n=22,228) from the Simons Powering Autism Research (SPARK) dataset to causal, explanatory theories of autism. In particular, the data-items collected supported the testing of theories that posited altered communication abilities as cause of social withdrawal, as well as alternative theories that competed with these communication theories. Our results using this large dataset converge with the evolution of the field in the decades since these theories were first proposed, namely supporting primary social withdrawal (in some cases of autism) as a cause of altered language development, rather than vice versa. To accomplish the above empiric goals, we used a highly theory-constrained approach, one which differs from current data-driven modeling trends but is coherent with a very recent resurgence in theory-driven psychology. In addition to careful explication and formalization of theoretical accounts, we propose three principles for future work of this type: specification, quantification, and integration. Specification refers to constraining models with pre-existing data, from both outside and within autism research, with more elaborate models and more veridical measures, and with longitudinal data collection. Quantification refers to using continuous measures of both psychological causes and effects, as well as weighted graphs. This approach avoids “universality and uniqueness” tests that hold that a single cognitive difference could be responsible for a heterogeneous and complex behavioral phenotype. Integration of multiple explanatory paths within a single model helps the field examine for multiple contributors to a single behavioral feature or to multiple behavioral features. It also allows integration of explanatory theories across multiple current-day diagnoses and as well as typical development.