Belief updating in decision-variable space: past decisions with finer granularity attract future ones more strongly

preprint OA: closed CC-BY-ND-4.0
📄 Open PDF Full text JSON View at publisher

Abstract

SUMMARY When engaged in decision-making tasks, humans are known to create decision variables. Much effort has focused on the cognitive processes involved in forming decision variables. However, there is limited understanding of how decision variables, once formed, are utilized to adapt to the environment. We reason that decision-makers would benefit from updating the belief of decision-variable. As one such belief updating, we hypothesize that a decision commitment restricts the probabilistic belief distribution of decision variable to a range corresponding to that decision. This implies that past decisions not only attract future ones but also exert a greater pull when those decisions are made with finer granularity— dubbed ‘the granularity effect.’ Here, we present the findings of seven psychophysical experiments that confirm these implications. Further, as a unified account of the granularity effect, we offer a Bayesian model. Our work demonstrates how humans leverage the decision-variable to effectively adapt to their surroundings.
Full text 1,304 characters · extracted from oa-doi-fallback · click to expand
SUMMARY When engaged in decision-making tasks, humans are known to create decision variables. Much effort has focused on the cognitive processes involved in forming decision variables. However, there is limited understanding of how decision variables, once formed, are utilized to adapt to the environment. We reason that decision-makers would benefit from updating the belief of decision-variable. As one such belief updating, we hypothesize that a decision commitment restricts the probabilistic belief distribution of decision variable to a range corresponding to that decision. This implies that past decisions not only attract future ones but also exert a greater pull when those decisions are made with finer granularity— dubbed ‘the granularity effect.’ Here, we present the findings of seven psychophysical experiments that confirm these implications. Further, as a unified account of the granularity effect, we offer a Bayesian model. Our work demonstrates how humans leverage the decision-variable to effectively adapt to their surroundings. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Footnotes ↵✉ e-mail: heeseung1990{at}gmail.com; visionsl{at}snu.ac.kr we revised analysis method and figures according to the reviewer's comments during a peer review process

Text is read by the "Ask this paper" AI Q&A widget below. Extraction quality varies by source — PMC NXML preserves structure cleanly, OA-HTML may include some navigation residue, and OA-PDF can have broken hyphenation. The publisher copy (via DOI) is the canonical version.

My notes (saved in your browser only)

Ask this paper AI returns verbatim quotes from the full text · source: oa-doi-fallback

Answers must be backed by verbatim quotes from this paper's full text. Hallucinated quotes are dropped automatically; if no verbatim passage answers the question, we say so. How this works

Citation neighborhood (no data yet)

We don't have any in-corpus citations linked to this paper yet. This is a recent paper (2024) — citers typically take a year or two to land, and the OpenAlex reference graph may still be filling in.

Source provenance

europepmc
last seen: 2026-05-20T01:45:00.602351+00:00
unpaywall
last seen: 2026-05-26T02:00:01.498150+00:00
License: CC-BY-ND-4.0