ESM-Regio-Simulation and Optimization of Regional Energy Systems in Carbon-Neutral Scenarios

ESM-Regio-Simulation and Optimization of Regional Energy Systems in Carbon-Neutral Scenarios | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article ESM-Regio-Simulation and Optimization of Regional Energy Systems in Carbon-Neutral Scenarios Kevin-Martin Aigner, Peter Bazan, Sebastian Bottler, Robert Burlacu, and 12 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7878317/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Energy Informatics → Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This work presents a high-resolution, sector-coupled energy system modeling framework developed within the research project ESM-Regio, designed to analyze regional energy transitions in the context of Germany’s 2045 climate targets. The framework operates on the medium-voltage level at a 15-minute temporal resolution and is designed to analyze regions ranging city to county (NUTS-3 level). The electricity, heat, transport, and gas sectors are integrated into the framework using a component-based simulation architecture. All sectors are represented with sectoral submodels which are iteratively coupled through alternating simulation and mixed-integer optimization stages to minimize operational system costs while accounting for technical grid constraints and asset aging. The methodology is applied to the distribution grid area of the regional utility Stadtwerke Bayreuth, for three representative weeks in each of the years 2019, 2030, and 2045. The results highlight the increasing importance of coordinated flexibility—such as building thermal inertia, battery storage, and electric vehicles—in mitigating grid stress under increased electrification. However, we find that while intelligent flexibility usage can reduce the need for grid expansion, it can not completely eliminate it in the carbon-neutral 2045 scenarios. The presented framework offers a scalable, data-driven approach to assess the impacts of sector coupling and to support infrastructure and regional energy transition planning aligned with national decarbonization goals. simulation power flow optimization energy system sector coupling electric vehicle smart charging heat pumps flexibility aging modeling Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Energy Informatics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 15 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 08 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 05 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 03 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 08 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 20 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 20 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 16 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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