Machine Learning Impact Assessment Of Climate Factors On Daily Covid-19 Cases

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Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (also known as COVID-19) is a vastly infectious virus instigated by the coronavirus-2, which causes severe acute respiratory illness (SARS-Cov-2). Scientists and researchers are conducting a number of studies to better understand the COVID-19 pandemic's behavioral nature and spread, and machine learning provides useful tools. We used machine learning techniques to study the effect of climate conditions on daily instances of COVID-19 in this study. The study has three main objectives: first, to investigate the most climatic features that could affect the spread of novel COVID-19 cases; second, to assess the influence of government strategies on COVID-19 using our dataset; third, to do a comparative analysis of two different machine learning models, and develop a model to predict accurate response to the most features on COVID-19 spread. The goal of this research is to assist health-care facilities and governments with planning and decision-making. The study compared random forest and artificial neural network models for analysis. In addition, feature importance among the independent variables (climate variables) were identified with the random forest. The study used publicly available datasets of COVID-19 cases from the World Health Organization and climate variables from National Aeronautics and Space Administration websites respectively. Our results showed that relative humidity and solar had significant impact as a feature of weather variables on COVID-19 recorded cases; and that random forest predicted accurate response to the most climatic features on COVID-19 spread. Based on this, we propose the random forest model to predict COVID-19 cases using weather variables.
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Machine Learning Impact Assessment Of Climate Factors On Daily Covid-19 Cases | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Machine Learning Impact Assessment Of Climate Factors On Daily Covid-19 Cases Stephen Afrifa, Essien Felix Ato, Peter Appiahene, Isaac Wiafe, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1334690/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (also known as COVID-19) is a vastly infectious virus instigated by the coronavirus-2, which causes severe acute respiratory illness (SARS-Cov-2). Scientists and researchers are conducting a number of studies to better understand the COVID-19 pandemic's behavioral nature and spread, and machine learning provides useful tools. We used machine learning techniques to study the effect of climate conditions on daily instances of COVID-19 in this study. The study has three main objectives: first, to investigate the most climatic features that could affect the spread of novel COVID-19 cases; second, to assess the influence of government strategies on COVID-19 using our dataset; third, to do a comparative analysis of two different machine learning models, and develop a model to predict accurate response to the most features on COVID-19 spread. The goal of this research is to assist health-care facilities and governments with planning and decision-making. The study compared random forest and artificial neural network models for analysis. In addition, feature importance among the independent variables (climate variables) were identified with the random forest. The study used publicly available datasets of COVID-19 cases from the World Health Organization and climate variables from National Aeronautics and Space Administration websites respectively. Our results showed that relative humidity and solar had significant impact as a feature of weather variables on COVID-19 recorded cases; and that random forest predicted accurate response to the most climatic features on COVID-19 spread. Based on this, we propose the random forest model to predict COVID-19 cases using weather variables. COVID-19 coronavirus machine learning weather conditions climatic variables Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1334690","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":84670691,"identity":"e6b2b636-a414-4e46-a94c-8baaa01352a7","order_by":0,"name":"Stephen 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