Dynamic Model of Displacement

This paper focuses on an important pre-condition for effective forecasting—a theoretical model that captures the full range of drivers that are implicated in decisions to move from one location to another. The paper first reviews the academic literature on the drivers of displacement. It also discusses the corollary of displacement—immobility that may be forced or voluntary. The heart of the article is the model of displacement that we have developed. We describe the process through which we developed the model and then explain its components. We conclude with a discussion of potential approaches that could be used to test the model.