Bayesian dynamic models to estimate the impact of halting vehicle fleets on the air quality: a case study from Medellín, Colombia

Bayesian dynamic models to estimate the impact of halting vehicle fleets on the air quality: a case study from Medellín, Colombia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Bayesian dynamic models to estimate the impact of halting vehicle fleets on the air quality: a case study from Medellín, Colombia Carlos Pérez, Johnatan Cardona Jiménez, I.N. Gomez-Miranda, Isabel Ramírez This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4402535/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Sep, 2024 Read the published version in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract According to the World Health Organization (WHO, 2022), outdoor air pollution is estimated to have caused 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide in 2019. Under this scenario, the development of statistical tools for assessing the impact of a possible reduction of fossil fuels-based transportation systems on air quality is more relevant than ever. This type of instruments can help policy makers to take the right path to tackle the problem of air pollution in urban environments. Thus, this work proposes a method to evaluate the impact of the reduction of vehicle fleets on air quality. The method is based on the construction of coun-terfactual time series, which represent observed air pollutants under a treatment of interest. In this case, the treatment of interest are the vehicle fleets on the streets. The construction of the counterfactual time series is based on Bayesian dynamic linear models. Several impact assessment measures are implemented, taking advantage of the counterfactual and observed time series (the observed pollutant without the treatment). The flexibility of the Bayesian approach allows easy inference of the impact quantities via high posterior density intervals. Some simulation analyses show that the method works well under different impact scenarios, and one application regarding Medellin’s case in Colombia is presented. For the application, it is shown that the drastic reduction in vehicle fleets during the COVID-19 mobility restrictions led to a significant reduction in the presence of different pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, NO2, NOx) Time series Intervention analysis Bayesian analysis Space-time dynamic models Air quality. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Sep, 2024 Read the published version in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 13 May, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 13 May, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 11 May, 2024 First submitted to journal 10 May, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4402535","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":301985723,"identity":"da89c042-a48f-4b43-bac0-11d33f21e958","order_by":0,"name":"Carlos Pérez","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad Nacional de Colombia","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carlos","middleName":"","lastName":"Pérez","suffix":""},{"id":301985724,"identity":"4338878b-b5d0-4ddf-90ca-0e13a7f4c19d","order_by":1,"name":"Johnatan Cardona Jiménez","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA30lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYgwcPAwMwP4j2AChCnRRLESCBGCxgAtTAYHCBWC3P74Wcf3lTcYTe+kXvwQwKDjeyGA8wPH+B1WE+a8cw5Z54xm93IS5ZIYEgz3nCAzdgAr5YZDMbMvG2HgVpyDIBaDiduOMDDJoFfC/tnsBbjGTnGPxIY/hOjhQdii4FEjhnQlgNEaOnJKWacc+Yws8SZN2YWCQbJxjMPE/CLYfvxzQxvKg4n87fnGN/4UGEn23e8GX+IGTZA6GQIBTKeGZ96IJCH0nYE1I2CUTAKRsFIBgDvE0fSJtxywQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad Nacional de Colombia","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Johnatan","middleName":"Cardona","lastName":"Jiménez","suffix":""},{"id":301985726,"identity":"a906d0db-c377-46d5-87f5-9d2cc05d2eee","order_by":2,"name":"I.N. 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