Measurement, Typology, and Multi-Scenario Forecasting of Urban Marginal Abatement Costs

Measurement, Typology, and Multi-Scenario Forecasting of Urban Marginal Abatement Costs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Measurement, Typology, and Multi-Scenario Forecasting of Urban Marginal Abatement Costs Jing ye Lyu, ren di song, Xiu feng Fan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9165072/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Under China’s “dual-carbon” goals, identifying inter-city differences in carbon marginal abatement costs and assessing their risks are crucial for region-specific policy design and optimal resource allocation. This study develops an integrated framework covering measurement, typology, driver analysis, and scenario forecasting. First, a DEA model is used to measure urban carbon marginal abatement costs. Second, within a high-quality development framework, structural indicators such as industrial structure, energy-use scale, urbanization carrying capacity, and innovation input are selected, and an endogenous city typology is identified through SOM pre-clustering and K-means partitioning, yielding six interpretable city types. Third, a random forest model combined with SHAP is employed to characterize the directional and nonlinear effects of key drivers. Finally, under the United Nations climate governance framework, three scenarios consistent with 1.5°C, 2°C, and 2.5°C warming targets are constructed, and a stacking model is used to forecast carbon marginal abatement costs from 2025 to 2060 and compare their trajectories across city types. The results show that carbon marginal abatement costs exhibit significant typological differences and fat-tail characteristics. An accelerated mitigation pathway consistent with the 1.5°C target is generally more conducive to compressing right-tail risks and promoting faster convergence across city types, whereas higher-warming scenarios are more likely to delay cost pressures and amplify uncertainty. Based on these findings, this study proposes a type-specific cost-reduction policy path centered on “controlling the right tail and promoting convergence,” providing quantitative evidence and policy implications for differentiated urban emission reduction and long-term cost governance. carbon marginal abatement cost (MAC) interpretable machine learning SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) SOM–K-means clustering scenario-based forecasting Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files declarationinterests.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 13 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 26 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 26 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 19 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9165072","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":623782112,"identity":"f697496f-8808-4c85-81b3-9f18451cd8a5","order_by":0,"name":"Jing ye Lyu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xi'an University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jing","middleName":"ye","lastName":"Lyu","suffix":""},{"id":623782113,"identity":"b320948f-1eb7-4161-b143-48cb4a2d45ee","order_by":1,"name":"ren di song","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfv7mA4f/GNjIybM3HyBOi+SMY4kHeCrSjA17jiUQp8XgQI7xAZ4zhxMbbvgYEOmyA2cMDki2pSU2zuD5eOMNg52cbgMBHYzNbQUHDNtsjNulezdbzmFINjY7QEALM8PhDQcS29JkG+ec3SbNw3AgcRshLWwMCQYHDrYdZmy4kfOMOC08DCkGBxvOHFYEamEjTouExLGEwwyQQDa2nGNAhF/szzcf/swAicqHN95U2MkR1IJqJQ+xUYOkhVQdo2AUjIJRMCIAANniS+XxGVqPAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Xi'an University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"ren","middleName":"di","lastName":"song","suffix":""},{"id":623782114,"identity":"ef7f2ff7-7d72-461d-baa0-d7d917f58b1a","order_by":2,"name":"Xiu feng Fan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xi'an Jiaotong University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiu","middleName":"feng","lastName":"Fan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-19 05:09:35","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9165072/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9165072/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107868769,"identity":"38ad114e-38ee-4016-a4c3-f2d15bb10dca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-27 07:33:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1397318,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"paper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9165072/v1_covered_5b33c76d-925b-4751-a9de-27921aca6ec3.pdf"},{"id":107183649,"identity":"1eb9e15f-6848-43b2-90a3-3559178ed599","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-17 18:14:57","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":14499,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"declarationinterests.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9165072/v1/ef2321734830ace41b3c1706.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Measurement, Typology, and Multi-Scenario Forecasting of Urban Marginal Abatement Costs","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"carbon-balance-and-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cbam","sideBox":"Learn more about [Carbon Balance and Management](https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"13021","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/13021/3","title":"Carbon Balance and Management","twitterHandle":"@BioMedCentral","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"carbon marginal abatement cost (MAC), interpretable machine learning, SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), SOM–K-means clustering, scenario-based forecasting","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9165072/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9165072/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUnder China\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;dual-carbon\u0026rdquo; goals, identifying inter-city differences in carbon marginal abatement costs and assessing their risks are crucial for region-specific policy design and optimal resource allocation. This study develops an integrated framework covering measurement, typology, driver analysis, and scenario forecasting. First, a DEA model is used to measure urban carbon marginal abatement costs. Second, within a high-quality development framework, structural indicators such as industrial structure, energy-use scale, urbanization carrying capacity, and innovation input are selected, and an endogenous city typology is identified through SOM pre-clustering and K-means partitioning, yielding six interpretable city types. Third, a random forest model combined with SHAP is employed to characterize the directional and nonlinear effects of key drivers. Finally, under the United Nations climate governance framework, three scenarios consistent with 1.5\u0026deg;C, 2\u0026deg;C, and 2.5\u0026deg;C warming targets are constructed, and a stacking model is used to forecast carbon marginal abatement costs from 2025 to 2060 and compare their trajectories across city types. The results show that carbon marginal abatement costs exhibit significant typological differences and fat-tail characteristics. An accelerated mitigation pathway consistent with the 1.5\u0026deg;C target is generally more conducive to compressing right-tail risks and promoting faster convergence across city types, whereas higher-warming scenarios are more likely to delay cost pressures and amplify uncertainty. Based on these findings, this study proposes a type-specific cost-reduction policy path centered on \u0026ldquo;controlling the right tail and promoting convergence,\u0026rdquo; providing quantitative evidence and policy implications for differentiated urban emission reduction and long-term cost governance.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Measurement, Typology, and Multi-Scenario Forecasting of Urban Marginal Abatement Costs","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-17 18:14:53","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9165072/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-13T06:46:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-03-26T04:25:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-03-26T04:25:24+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Carbon Balance and Management","date":"2026-03-19T05:03:06+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"carbon-balance-and-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cbam","sideBox":"Learn more about [Carbon Balance and Management](https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"13021","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/13021/3","title":"Carbon Balance and Management","twitterHandle":"@BioMedCentral","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d166f958-f70d-498f-8de7-b3d1104ab7d7","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 17th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-17T18:14:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-17 18:14:53","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9165072","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9165072","identity":"rs-9165072","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}