Disentangling dynamic affect trajectories for distinct depression courses during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background. Why does adversity lead to mental health complaints in some, but not others? Individual differences in the development of depressive complaints are related to the regulation of affect states. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a prolonged period of perturbations to the daily lives of people across the globe, providing an unparalleled opportunity to investigate how fluctuations in positive and negative affect relate to the evolution of mood complaints.Methods. 228 participants from the Boston College daily sleep and well-being survey completed at least 20 assessments of positive and negative affect and depression complaints between March 20th 2020 and June 26th 2020. We explored affect trajectories throughout this period and estimated longitudinal multilevel network models. Furthermore, we investigated how individual network structures relate to changes in depression severity over time.Results. On average, positive affect was reported somewhat higher than negative affect. However, when separating affect trajectories based on the individuals’ depressive complaints, we identified that individuals consistently experiencing depressive complaints report higher levels of negative affect compared with positive affect. Contrary, individuals consistently reporting no depressive complaints show opposite results. Furthermore, we found many and strong associations in the multilevel network between the distinct affect states and depressive complaints. Lastly, we established that the higher the connectivity of an individual’s network, the larger their change in depressive complaints is.Conclusions. We conclude that affect fluctuations are directly related to the development of depressive complaints, both within- and across individuals, and both within a single measurement moment and over time.