The spread and burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa: comparison between predictions and actual data and lessons learned

ABSTRACT Introduction Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was predicted to be severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but the actual data seem to have contradicted these forecasts. This study attempted to verify this observation by comparing predictions against actual data on the spread and burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in SSA. Methods Focused on the period from March 1 st to September 30 th , 2020, we compared (1) the predicted interval dates when each SSA country would report 1 000 and 10 000 COVID-19 cases, to the actual dates when these numbers were attained, as well as (2) the daily number of predicted versus actual COVID-19 cases. Further, we calculated the case fatality ratio of the COVID-19 infection in SSA, and the correlation coefficient between the weekly average number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by each country and the weekly average stringency index of its anti-COVID-19 policy measures. Results 84.61% (33) and 100% (39) of the 39 SSA countries for which predictions were made did not reach a total of 1 000 and 10 000 confirmed COVID-19 cases at the predicted interval dates. The daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was lower than the one projected for all SSA countries. The case fatality ratio of the COVID-19 infection in SSA was 3.42%. Among the 44 SSA countries for which the correlation could be estimated, it was negative for 17 (38.6 %) of them. Conclusions The natural characteristics of SSA and the public health measures implemented might partly explain that the actual data were lower than the predictions on the COVID-19 pandemic in SSA, but the low case ascertainment and the numerous asymptomatic cases did significantly influence this observation.