Exposing inequitable risk estimation of emergency service disruptions during urban floods

Exposing inequitable risk estimation of emergency service disruptions during urban floods | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Exposing inequitable risk estimation of emergency service disruptions during urban floods John Taylor, Xiyu Pan, Neda Mohammadi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6422955/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Emergency service (ES) disruption is a major impact of urban flooding. As a critical safety and health safeguard, ES disruption risk mitigation must consider the equity of risk across populations with varying social vulnerability. A key prerequisite in this equitable risk management endeavor is the estimation of risk distributions and their spatial relationship to vulnerability. Assuming estimated risk is a good indicator of the real risk levels, extant research and practice overlook the potential biases in risk estimation errors regarding vulnerability. Greater risk underestimation for more vulnerable populations could lead to inequitable risk estimation and less effective risk mitigation. By implementing the routing-based risk estimation and investigating the error against a real-world ES dataset, we found evidence of inequitable risk underestimation and analyzed the underlying urban dynamics for the inequity. The results could deepen our understanding of ES flood risk inequity and promote more accurate and equitable estimation method development. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Socioeconomic scenarios Physical sciences/Engineering/Civil engineering Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files emergserviceaccesssupp20250324.pdf Exposing inequitable risk estimation of emergency service disruptions during urban floods Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6422955","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":456271354,"identity":"b6fb5194-fc1b-4737-af0f-b952a4769a27","order_by":0,"name":"John Taylor","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYGxgdglgQQ8xCnhZnZgIHBgAQtDAzMbBKkaWFu7z9W+aXmjxz/7AbGB2/biHFYz2G22zLHDIwl7hxgNpxLlJYZyWy3JdgMEjdIJLBJ8xKlZf5jtmKJfwb1QC3sv4nTMoOZjfFjm0GCAdAWZuK09CQbSzP2GRvOuJHYLDnnHBFaDNsPPvz445ucPP+M5IMf3pQRo6UBGNCQ6AAmBKKAPEjtD+LUjoJRMApGwUgFAPRkMrBMoh28AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Georgia Tech","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"John","middleName":"","lastName":"Taylor","suffix":""},{"id":456271355,"identity":"0ab14bc6-6ac3-43f5-bede-183f5bce21f7","order_by":1,"name":"Xiyu Pan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Georgia Tech","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Pan","suffix":""},{"id":456271356,"identity":"aa55f4b0-3d3a-44fd-9d82-ee63e6417ddf","order_by":2,"name":"Neda Mohammadi","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2284-6077","institution":"Georgia Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Neda","middleName":"","lastName":"Mohammadi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-10 20:10:23","currentVersionCode":2,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6422955/v2","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6422955/v2","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91969710,"identity":"f9f3ee0f-183a-40a2-998a-b39807967ff4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-23 08:54:41","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1065814,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"emergserviceaccess20250415.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6422955/v2_covered_b6b21942-99cf-4ac8-9a2c-40520d4c8606.pdf"},{"id":82676526,"identity":"405ebe76-a5c4-455a-98f8-a6cc6c596b29","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-05 04:03:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":5154481,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Exposing inequitable risk estimation of emergency service disruptions during urban floods","description":"","filename":"emergserviceaccesssupp20250324.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6507014/v1/e3b8fb86e660968ee9c5df89.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Exposing inequitable risk estimation of emergency service disruptions during urban floods","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Georgia Institute of Technology","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6422955/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6422955/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Emergency service (ES) disruption is a major impact of urban flooding. 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