The Role of Political Belief in COVID-19 Vaccine Resistance, Virus Transmission, and Closure Policy Response

Abstract In this paper, we employ unique panel data on the universe of COVID-19 vaccination and infection cases in Israel to examine the role of political belief in COVID-19 vaccine uptake, virus transmission, and closure policy response. The paper identifies political belief based on statistical area votes in national elections held in Israel on the eve of the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020. Unlike the U.S. and elsewhere, pandemic policy intervention in Israel was broadly supported by politicians across the belief spectrum; as such, household response to virus risk was not biased owing to partisan leadership disagreement and debate. Statistical findings show, all things equal, that in the wake of emergent and localized virus risk, politically right-of-center and religious voters display substantially higher odds of both vaccine resistance and virus transmission as compared to their left-center counterparts. Moreover, political belief is highly salient to aggregate pandemic outcomes. Model simulation shows that had all belief groups responded to virus risk with the more risk-averse behaviors of left-of-center voters, the number of vaccinations nationwide would have increased by 15 percent. That same scenario results in a full 30 percent reduction in total infection cases. Results also show that coercive policy measures such as economic closure were more effective in reducing virus transmission among less risk-averse right-wing and religious voters. Findings provide new evidence of the role of political belief in household response to health risk. Results further underscore the importance of timely, targeted messaging and treatment among divergent political belief groups so as to enhance COVID-19 policy efficacy and related disease control. JEL Codes: I18, D91, D8, R1