Mapping of Population Growth Influence on Land Use Transformation from 1994-2015 in Madaba Governorate, Jordan

Madaba Governorate, the second-largest wheat-producing region in Jordan, is vital for ensuring food security. Hence, its case study could reveal valuable insights to address land use and food security challenges. This study focuses on the conversion of agricultural lands into urban areas in the Madaba Governorate and elaborates on its correlation with population growth. Land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1994, 2004, and 2015 were used in the Markov model to predict future changes in 2025 and 2035 with 80% accuracy (kappa coefficient). The results revealed a significant urbanization trend during the next decade by projecting a 6% increase in urban areas and an 11.81% decrease in agricultural lands. This scenario necessitates the development of sustainable land use planning and management strategies to address population-driven LULC dynamics. Moreover, the study also emphasizes water resource management in this water-scarce region. Recommendations encompass restraining urban sprawl, protecting agricultural lands, and implementing water conservation measures. These findings offer valuable insights to land use planners, policymakers, and stakeholders in Madaba Governorate for sustainable development. The study further integrates spatial analysis and socioeconomic factors to depict a comprehensive understanding of the intricate interactions between population growth, land use changes, and water resources of the region.