Future precipitation scenario in Bangladesh: A CMIP-6 based analysis

The goal of this study was to identify the expected changes in precipitation throughout Bangladesh under four shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) with an observation period of 2021 to 2100. However, the precipitation changes were found to be much higher than the reference period over the Chittagong and Sylhet divisions between 2021 and 2080, and the same was found over Rangpur and Sylhet divisions in the period 2081 to 2100. The highest positive anomaly in annual average maximum precipitation is projected to be 1984 mm in 2081–2100 in Sylhet under the SSP5-8.5, while the highest negative anomaly is found at 611 mm over Khulna under the SSP3-7.0 in 2041–2060. In the study area, the highest positive anomaly of 516 mm under SSP5-8.5 in 2081–2100 and the highest negative anomaly of 216 mm under SSP5-8.5 in 2021–2040 over Barisal and Sylhet were found. The results of the current study suggest that extreme precipitation anomalies in the Khulna, Barisal, and Sylhet divisions may have had an impact on Bangladesh's socioeconomic development at numerous locations in the twenty-first century.