Unprecedented Extreme Meteorological Droughts Simulated in Fenno-Scandinavia with High-Resolution Climate Models

Unprecedented Extreme Meteorological Droughts Simulated in Fenno-Scandinavia with High-Resolution Climate Models | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Unprecedented Extreme Meteorological Droughts Simulated in Fenno-Scandinavia with High-Resolution Climate Models Ruben Häberli, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Peter Thejll, Eigil Kaas This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6056779/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) increasingly model local climate at scales smaller than 4 km. CPRCMs provide improved simulations of precipitation by resolving convection explicitly instead of relying on parameterisation.Still, CPRCMs' implications for drought conditions remain underexplored, especially in Europe and Fenno-Scandinavia where future changes in drought frequency and intensity are still unclear.In this study, we use data from a recent CPRCM run based on HARMONIE-Climate over Fenno-Scandinavia at approximately 3 km resolution to assess changes in drought probabilities in Fenno-Scandinavia using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, we developed a more nuanced multi-threshold method, analysing the previously overlooked different intensities of droughts.We found that overall there will be fewer future months with moderate drought. However, the number of months with extraordinary and unprecedented drought levels will increase, especially during the growing season. Both the CPRCM and the regional climate models (RCM) demonstrate this signal. The CPRCM is projecting more droughts compared to the RCM, especially for the most intense drought intensities.According to the data in this study, large parts of Fenno-Scandinavia will be affected by droughts of unprecedented intensities by the middle and especially by the end of the 21st century.Our findings show the potential of using CPRCMs for modelling drought, as the more accurate physical representation of precipitation manifests in an increased frequency of drought projections compared to RCM. Furthermore, we recommend the use of the multi-threshold method to better capture the complexity of droughts in a changing climate. Future Meteorological Drought SPI Fenno-Scandinavia Convection-permitting climate modelling HARMONIE-Climate Climate change Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 02 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 12 Mar, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 25 Feb, 2025 First submitted to journal 23 Feb, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6056779","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":437792934,"identity":"4256ea29-6f1d-49bc-8f76-379c96a0530a","order_by":0,"name":"Ruben Häberli","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHhBxgIFBAkg9MLBhMGBmYAYymQ2I05JgkEayFobDDECl+LWYz8g9+LiA4Y48v3TzsQ8JBefzzNkZmI15GKyNcWmRuZGXbDyD4ZnhzDnHkmckGNwutmxmYE7mYUg3w6VFQiLHTJqH4TDjhhs5xkC/3E7ccJiB+TBQxAaPFvPfQAX2+2/kfwZqOUeUFjNmoILEDRI5zEAtB8BagA47jNthPO+SpXkMDifPuHMM5LDkxJ3NjM2GcwzScXpfgj334GeeisO2/bObHzN8+GOXuJ3/8GGJNxXWhg249IABahwwNqCLjIJRMApGwSggEQAA27tPTvR4cRsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1406-2900","institution":"University of Copenhagen Niels Bohr Institute for Astronomy Physics and Geophysics: Kobenhavns Universitet Niels Bohr Instituttet","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ruben","middleName":"","lastName":"Häberli","suffix":""},{"id":437792935,"identity":"b99c0200-27af-4df0-8653-5c6ae730d977","order_by":1,"name":"Ole Bøssing Christensen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Danish Meteorological Institute: Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ole","middleName":"Bøssing","lastName":"Christensen","suffix":""},{"id":437792936,"identity":"82501912-1800-44aa-8334-ce611f2609db","order_by":2,"name":"Peter Thejll","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Danish Meteorological Institute: Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Thejll","suffix":""},{"id":437792937,"identity":"074ee75d-1ee5-4060-8176-362a63dde5af","order_by":3,"name":"Eigil Kaas","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Copenhagen Niels Bohr Institute for Astronomy Physics and Geophysics: Kobenhavns Universitet Niels Bohr Instituttet","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eigil","middleName":"","lastName":"Kaas","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-18 13:50:51","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6056779/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6056779/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08060-z","type":"published","date":"2026-03-02T16:00:01+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104250807,"identity":"341a103d-9afe-4cc1-aad7-decb07770f13","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-09 16:09:04","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":17112860,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Haeberlietaldroughtlinenumber.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6056779/v1_covered_4a0f1626-39da-4bad-905d-2bc746ed93b6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Unprecedented Extreme Meteorological Droughts Simulated in Fenno-Scandinavia with High-Resolution Climate Models","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Future Meteorological Drought, SPI, Fenno-Scandinavia, Convection-permitting climate modelling, HARMONIE-Climate, Climate change","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6056779/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6056779/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eConvection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) increasingly model local climate at scales smaller than 4 km. 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