Degradation of Visible Autumn Icons and Conservation Opportunities: Trends in Deciduous Forest Loss in the Contiguous US

Temperate deciduous forests are one of the most visible biomes on Earth because of their autumn aesthetics and because they harbor some of the most heavily populated regions. Their ability to attract visitors may increase opportunities for people to experience nature, which has been linked to greater conservation action. Identifying regions with high leaf-peeping opportunities and regions where color has been lost to landscape conversion may help to inform these connections. We use spatial overlay analyses to quantify temperate deciduous forest coverage, disturbance, and protections in each U.S. ecoregion. We evaluated recent (1984-2016) and predicted (2016-2050) disturbance under extreme future scenarios. Almost all ecoregions saw a decline in deciduous forest cover between 1985 and 2016. Some ecoregions with the greatest opportunities for leaf-peeping are also underrepresented in the protected areas network and vulnerable to additional losses. Under economic-growth forecasting scenarios, losses are predicted to continue. However, environmentally focused scenarios suggest there is still opportunity to reverse deciduous forest loss in some ecoregions. Differences in forest loss between predictions scenarios emphasize the importance of human approaches in securing environmental stability. Increasing public exposure to temperate forests may help ensure conservation of more natural areas and preserve the quantity and quality of autumn forest viewing. Key Points Temperate deciduous forests aesthetics attract visitors to experience nature, but degradation and loss can hinder connections. US ecoregions with the greatest leaf-peeping opportunities are underrepresented in the protected areas and vulnerable to additional losses. Differences in predictions scenarios emphasize the importance of conservation action, which may be linked to human connections with nature.