Antarctic Ozone Loss Shapes Surface Cooling Pattern and Climate Sensitivity

Antarctic Ozone Loss Shapes Surface Cooling Pattern and Climate Sensitivity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Antarctic Ozone Loss Shapes Surface Cooling Pattern and Climate Sensitivity Peidong Wang, Susan Solomon, Clara Deser, David Thompson, Noah Diffenbaugh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8544146/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns have recently been recognized as a major feedback affecting the sensitivity of climate to increases in greenhouse gases 1–3 . Over recent decades, while most of Earth’s surface warmed, the eastern tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean unexpectedly cooled. These regional SST cooling trends are not reproduced by most global climate models (GCMs) 4 , leading to systematic biases in estimates of global climate sensitivity 1,2 . While Antarctic ozone depletion has been proposed as a potential driver of the cooling 5 , its influence has previously been considered too weak 6,7 . Here we provide novel evidence that suggests Antarctic ozone depletion can indeed quantitatively account for this observed SST cooling. Using ~4,000 years of simulation from eight GCMs, we construct a multiple linear regression model that isolates the intrinsic relationship between Antarctic ozone and SST, capturing robust short-timescale coupling while avoiding biases from the lack of resolved ocean eddies and their long-timescale adjustments in GCMs 8–10 . We calculate that the ozone-driven SST pattern effect strengthened the global radiative feedback by 17-21% (0.49-0.83 W m -2 K -1 ) during 1979-2000, thereby reducing effective climate sensitivity. As Antarctic ozone starts to recover 11,12 , the stabilizing influence has begun to wane, leading to a more warming-prone climate. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric chemistry Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8544146","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":573369765,"identity":"ed16c2cf-689e-4b2d-b32d-44953d643b74","order_by":0,"name":"Peidong Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFCCBBBhA2Z+YGBghokQ1JLGwMPAwDiDFC2HSdBizp5j+Lng13l7e/azBxs+7rFm4GfPMcCrxbLnjbH0zL7biT08eYmNM56lM0j2vMGvxeBG7gZp3p7bCTwMOeaPeQ4cBooQsAWoZfNv3p5z9jz8bwybQVrsidCyTZrnxwHGHokciBYDCYJ+ef/NmrchObHnxhvDxhkH0nkkzjwrwKvFnD0t+TbPHzt79v4cw4YPB6zl+NuTN+B3GIhgbEMI8OBVDtfC8IegulEwCkbBKBjJAADpbEnm1ZZimAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6491-7171","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peidong","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":573369766,"identity":"119d214b-d0a2-41bf-925c-37a6dffcc969","order_by":1,"name":"Susan Solomon","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Susan","middleName":"","lastName":"Solomon","suffix":""},{"id":573369767,"identity":"7e2cd84b-0ff6-40e6-8248-811bd2e3b299","order_by":2,"name":"Clara Deser","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5517-9103","institution":"National Center for Atmospheric Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Clara","middleName":"","lastName":"Deser","suffix":""},{"id":573369768,"identity":"ec073d3e-645e-4c36-92f1-473d7e58508e","order_by":3,"name":"David Thompson","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Colorado State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Thompson","suffix":""},{"id":573369769,"identity":"21dadd1e-8ebf-424e-9570-fa007b23258b","order_by":4,"name":"Noah Diffenbaugh","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8856-4964","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Noah","middleName":"","lastName":"Diffenbaugh","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-07 17:25:48","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8544146/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8544146/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100365334,"identity":"3059eda5-1dfc-4d81-bebd-588a3fb0b9cd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:55:04","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4292465,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"WangetalOzoneSSTpatterneffectdraft3submit.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8544146/v1_covered_a918400d-7088-484f-8f69-029d4c7da65e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Antarctic Ozone Loss Shapes Surface Cooling Pattern and Climate Sensitivity","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8544146/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8544146/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns have recently been recognized as a major feedback affecting the sensitivity of climate to increases in greenhouse gases\u003csup\u003e1–3\u003c/sup\u003e. Over recent decades, while most of Earth’s surface warmed, the eastern tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean unexpectedly cooled. These regional SST cooling trends are not reproduced by most global climate models (GCMs)\u003csup\u003e4\u003c/sup\u003e, leading to systematic biases in estimates of global climate sensitivity\u003csup\u003e1,2\u003c/sup\u003e. While Antarctic ozone depletion has been proposed as a potential driver of the cooling\u003csup\u003e5\u003c/sup\u003e, its influence has previously been considered too weak\u003csup\u003e6,7\u003c/sup\u003e. Here we provide novel evidence that suggests Antarctic ozone depletion can indeed quantitatively account for this observed SST cooling. Using ~4,000 years of simulation from eight GCMs, we construct a multiple linear regression model that isolates the intrinsic relationship between Antarctic ozone and SST, capturing robust short-timescale coupling while avoiding biases from the lack of resolved ocean eddies and their long-timescale adjustments in GCMs\u003csup\u003e8–10\u003c/sup\u003e. We calculate that the ozone-driven SST pattern effect strengthened the global radiative feedback by 17-21% (0.49-0.83 W m\u003csup\u003e-2\u003c/sup\u003e K\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e) during 1979-2000, thereby reducing effective climate sensitivity. As Antarctic ozone starts to recover\u003csup\u003e11,12\u003c/sup\u003e, the stabilizing influence has begun to wane, leading to a more warming-prone climate.","manuscriptTitle":"Antarctic Ozone Loss Shapes Surface Cooling Pattern and Climate Sensitivity","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-13 08:47:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8544146/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":false,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nature","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature](http://www.nature.com/nature/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"40460420-9eef-4828-8def-6effe272b480","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 13th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":61007341,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling"},{"id":61007342,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric chemistry"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-07T06:42:06+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-13 08:47:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8544146","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8544146","identity":"rs-8544146","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}