Far-right ideology slows adoption of green technologies, but the partisan gap is dynamic

Far-right ideology slows adoption of green technologies, but the partisan gap is dynamic | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Far-right ideology slows adoption of green technologies, but the partisan gap is dynamic Moritz Wussow, Sebastian Reining, Chad Zanocco, Rita Sousa-Silva, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6327990/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The diffusion of green technologies is critical for climate goals, yet political polarization influences adoption. We examine how ideology affects electric vehicle (EV) and residential solar photovoltaic (PV) uptake in Germany, drawing on three-wave survey data (n=2,356–3,092; 2022–24) and municipality-level registrations, installations, and voting data (n=10,733; 2014–23). Supporters of the far-right AfD show significantly lower willingness to adopt EVs and, to a lesser degree, PVs, compared to Green Party voters. Polarization is not static: while PV adoption was initially strongly tied to political preferences, this effect weakened as the technology matured. EV adoption is more polarized but exhibits a declining trend over time. Yet, we also find that previously unpolitical technologies, like heat pumps, can suddenly become polarized. Using an instrumental variable approach based on wolf attacks – a proven predictor of far-right voting – we address endogeneity concerns and identify a causal negative impact of far-right voting on green technology adoption. Scientific community and society/Business and industry/Technology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Psychology and behaviour Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy and behaviour Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Politics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SIFarrightvotersandrenewablesadoptionvInitialSubmission.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6327990","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":454479295,"identity":"46c04152-f971-412e-9833-28676cae9413","order_by":0,"name":"Moritz Wussow","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Albert Ludwig University of Freiburg","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Moritz","middleName":"","lastName":"Wussow","suffix":""},{"id":454479296,"identity":"09dbb4d1-4039-44d7-a9b0-3d65cc7a1a29","order_by":1,"name":"Sebastian Reining","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6998-5911","institution":"University of Freiburg","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sebastian","middleName":"","lastName":"Reining","suffix":""},{"id":454479297,"identity":"010a15ca-85e2-4ffe-8b22-cf6793eb9915","order_by":2,"name":"Chad Zanocco","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5015-4433","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chad","middleName":"","lastName":"Zanocco","suffix":""},{"id":454479298,"identity":"7125d92f-8b51-4e80-ac7c-44131c18357e","order_by":3,"name":"Rita Sousa-Silva","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8640-6121","institution":"Institute of Environmental Sciences, Department of Environmental Biology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rita","middleName":"","lastName":"Sousa-Silva","suffix":""},{"id":454479299,"identity":"d29bfbce-54ad-4d00-8212-5aa7ec4fca3e","order_by":4,"name":"Corinna Köpke","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed-Dynamics","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Corinna","middleName":"","lastName":"Köpke","suffix":""},{"id":454479300,"identity":"3ed73134-e499-4fb5-bd1b-960b104eb775","order_by":5,"name":"Sahani Pathiraja","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of New South Wales","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sahani","middleName":"","lastName":"Pathiraja","suffix":""},{"id":454479301,"identity":"8197867f-0271-4043-a407-313e7e38f430","order_by":6,"name":"Dirk Neumann","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2178-3705","institution":"University of Freiburg","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dirk","middleName":"","lastName":"Neumann","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-28 12:06:27","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6327990/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6327990/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88234209,"identity":"e9c30c60-0760-43a2-b81b-d6bf886ed0f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-04 09:56:29","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1372851,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"MainTextFarrightvotersandrenewablesadoptionvInitialSubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6327990/v1_covered_1604deda-a447-47aa-b2ad-7c1d39596943.pdf"},{"id":88233121,"identity":"402678ae-1fb7-4448-9a69-c2aad80fce3c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-04 09:48:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1595142,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"SIFarrightvotersandrenewablesadoptionvInitialSubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6327990/v1/50db23cf9a3359cfc690b251.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Far-right ideology slows adoption of green technologies, but the partisan gap is dynamic","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6327990/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6327990/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The diffusion of green technologies is critical for climate goals, yet political polarization influences adoption. We examine how ideology affects electric vehicle (EV) and residential solar photovoltaic (PV) uptake in Germany, drawing on three-wave survey data (n=2,356–3,092; 2022–24) and municipality-level registrations, installations, and voting data (n=10,733; 2014–23). Supporters of the far-right AfD show significantly lower willingness to adopt EVs and, to a lesser degree, PVs, compared to Green Party voters. Polarization is not static: while PV adoption was initially strongly tied to political preferences, this effect weakened as the technology matured. EV adoption is more polarized but exhibits a declining trend over time. Yet, we also find that previously unpolitical technologies, like heat pumps, can suddenly become polarized. Using an instrumental variable approach based on wolf attacks – a proven predictor of far-right voting – we address endogeneity concerns and identify a causal negative impact of far-right voting on green technology adoption.","manuscriptTitle":"Far-right ideology slows adoption of green technologies, but the partisan gap is dynamic","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-04 09:48:22","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6327990/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-sustainability","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"natsustain","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Sustainability](http://www.nature.com/natsustain/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7f68b6db-5c4e-4b0a-8ade-a990bc4c6781","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 4th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":48329190,"name":"Scientific community and society/Business and industry/Technology"},{"id":48329191,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Psychology and behaviour"},{"id":48329192,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability"},{"id":48329193,"name":"Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy and behaviour"},{"id":48329194,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Politics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-07T07:46:28+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-04 09:48:22","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6327990","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6327990","identity":"rs-6327990","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}