Numerical and Empirical Assessment of Liquefaction-Induced Settlement and Uplift from Field Evidence

Numerical and Empirical Assessment of Liquefaction-Induced Settlement and Uplift from Field Evidence | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Numerical and Empirical Assessment of Liquefaction-Induced Settlement and Uplift from Field Evidence Muhammet Ceylan, Selcuk Toprak, Engin Nacaroglu, Berk Yagcioglu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8935552/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Liquefaction-induced ground deformations constitute a major source of earthquake-related damage, affecting both surface structures and buried infrastructure systems. This study presents a comparative assessment of two complementary case histories supported by advanced numerical modeling, semi-empirical procedures, remote sensing data, and post-earthquake field observations. Free-field settlements following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake were evaluated using UBC3D-PLM and PM4Sand constitutive models and compared with semi-empirical approaches based on SPT and CPT data. Numerical predictions were further compared with LiDAR-derived surface deformation measurements. The UBC3D-PLM model predicted a settlement of 3.5 cm, whereas the PM4Sand model estimated 8.8 cm. Semi-empirical methods yielded settlements of approximately 11 cm, consistent with LiDAR-observed surface deformations ranging between 10 cm and 20 cm. The comparison illustrates the sensitivity of predicted settlements to constitutive formulation and reconsolidation modeling assumptions. The uplift behavior of a stormwater pumping station in Iskenderun during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake was analyzed using the UBC3D-PLM model. Numerical simulations predicted an uplift of approximately 28 cm, in close agreement with field observations of about 30 cm, demonstrating the capability of effective-stress-based constitutive modeling to capture soil–structure interaction effects under liquefied conditions. The findings highlight that surface settlements and structural uplift represent complementary manifestations of post-liquefaction ground response. Comparative evaluation underscores the influence of modeling approach and assumptions on predicted deformation levels. By examining numerical, empirical, and field-based evidence across two case histories, this study provides insight into the capabilities and limitations of current methods for estimating liquefaction-induced ground deformations and supports more informed assessment of infrastructure performance in liquefaction-prone regions. Liquefaction Earthquake Settlement Uplift Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 28 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 25 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 23 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8935552","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":602059343,"identity":"5ace281e-ee2d-4cbf-b53f-99b4305b974e","order_by":0,"name":"Muhammet Ceylan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNCCAgYGfgYGxgMJDBIgrgERWoBqJBsYGJC0JBChxeAAUAuCi0eL7ozkh495DOzyjM8vPnDgwR+LaAb25m0SjD/u4dRidiPN2JjHILnY7MazhAOJbRK5DTzHyiQYEorxaMlhk+YxYE7cduOMwYHEBqAWiRwzoBbcLgNqYf/NY1CfuHnG+Q8HEv4Atci/IaiFjZnH4HDiBv4eYIixgWzhIaDlzDNjyTkGxxNn3GAzAPuljSet2CIhDY+W48kPP7ypqE7s7z/88OGPP3W5/eyHN974YINbCwgw8YBICagiNhCBXwMwofwAkfwHCCgbBaNgFIyCEQsA8F5X3CENcDIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6258-9314","institution":"Istanbul Gelisim University - Sehit Piyade Onbaşı Murat Sengöz Street: Istanbul Gelisim Universitesi - Sehit Piyade Onbasi Murat Sengoz Sokak","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammet","middleName":"","lastName":"Ceylan","suffix":""},{"id":602059344,"identity":"faba220b-b3e6-4456-a394-233d39d374c2","order_by":1,"name":"Selcuk Toprak","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Gebze Technical University: Gebze Teknik Universitesi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Selcuk","middleName":"","lastName":"Toprak","suffix":""},{"id":602059345,"identity":"8b4d6fcf-a183-48e6-b79d-e65f6fd2df6d","order_by":2,"name":"Engin Nacaroglu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pamukkale University: Pamukkale Universitesi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Engin","middleName":"","lastName":"Nacaroglu","suffix":""},{"id":602059346,"identity":"ce62dd3e-a48a-4a32-8629-e81d497eb10d","order_by":3,"name":"Berk Yagcioglu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pamukkale University: Pamukkale Universitesi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Berk","middleName":"","lastName":"Yagcioglu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-21 20:09:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8935552/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8935552/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104495890,"identity":"8a4e5d1d-a571-4ea0-9fa9-00332c5a52dc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-12 12:42:04","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2472379,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"CeylanetalFinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8935552/v1_covered_02d7e352-d631-45ba-b608-a585ceaa5e30.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Numerical and Empirical Assessment of Liquefaction-Induced Settlement and Uplift from Field Evidence","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bulletin-of-earthquake-engineering","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"beee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering](https://www.springer.com/journal/10518)","snPcode":"10518","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10518/3","title":"Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Liquefaction, Earthquake, Settlement, Uplift","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8935552/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8935552/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLiquefaction-induced ground deformations constitute a major source of earthquake-related damage, affecting both surface structures and buried infrastructure systems. This study presents a comparative assessment of two complementary case histories supported by advanced numerical modeling, semi-empirical procedures, remote sensing data, and post-earthquake field observations. Free-field settlements following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake were evaluated using UBC3D-PLM and PM4Sand constitutive models and compared with semi-empirical approaches based on SPT and CPT data. Numerical predictions were further compared with LiDAR-derived surface deformation measurements. The UBC3D-PLM model predicted a settlement of 3.5 cm, whereas the PM4Sand model estimated 8.8 cm. Semi-empirical methods yielded settlements of approximately 11 cm, consistent with LiDAR-observed surface deformations ranging between 10 cm and 20 cm. The comparison illustrates the sensitivity of predicted settlements to constitutive formulation and reconsolidation modeling assumptions. The uplift behavior of a stormwater pumping station in Iskenderun during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake was analyzed using the UBC3D-PLM model. Numerical simulations predicted an uplift of approximately 28 cm, in close agreement with field observations of about 30 cm, demonstrating the capability of effective-stress-based constitutive modeling to capture soil\u0026ndash;structure interaction effects under liquefied conditions. The findings highlight that surface settlements and structural uplift represent complementary manifestations of post-liquefaction ground response. Comparative evaluation underscores the influence of modeling approach and assumptions on predicted deformation levels. By examining numerical, empirical, and field-based evidence across two case histories, this study provides insight into the capabilities and limitations of current methods for estimating liquefaction-induced ground deformations and supports more informed assessment of infrastructure performance in liquefaction-prone regions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Numerical and Empirical Assessment of Liquefaction-Induced Settlement and Uplift from Field Evidence","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-12 12:39:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8935552/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2026-03-17T14:39:13+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-03-06T18:22:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering","date":"2026-02-28T12:58:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-02-25T05:00:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering","date":"2026-02-23T11:56:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bulletin-of-earthquake-engineering","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"beee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering](https://www.springer.com/journal/10518)","snPcode":"10518","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10518/3","title":"Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"545d00d4-cf88-423a-bcc1-403afd1b014c","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 12th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-12T12:39:47+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-12 12:39:46","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8935552","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8935552","identity":"rs-8935552","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}