Joint Biotic and Abiotic Spatial Turnover: A Basis for Modelling Ecosystem Patterns at Regional Extents

Joint Biotic and Abiotic Spatial Turnover: A Basis for Modelling Ecosystem Patterns at Regional Extents | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Oikos This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 12 May 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Joint Biotic and Abiotic Spatial Turnover: A Basis for Modelling Ecosystem Patterns at Regional Extents Authors : Sean Basquill 0000-0003-1738-1543 [email protected] and Shawn Leroux 0000-0001-9580-0294 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/authorea.15003051/v1 19 views 11 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Spatial ecosystem models are essential for advancing ecological understanding and improving conservation outcomes. Yet rare are spatial ecosystem models where abiotic and biotic responses – key features of an ecosystem – are explicitly recognized and simultaneously predicted. Here we modeled continuous spatial turnover among combinations of both biotic and abiotic properties to predict forest ecosystem patterns across Nova Scotia, Canada. To achieve this objective, we fit generalized dissimilarity models to field collected data on 19 biotic and abiotic response variables (n = 2017 plots), and geographic and environmental gradients described by remotely sensed predictor variables. We developed three separate models targeting ecosystem (joint biotic and abiotic), biotic, and abiotic responses to identify shared and independent relationships among ecosystem properties across different levels of ecological organization. Outputs of our ecosystem model were mapped to reveal how spatially structured relationships among biotic and abiotic ecosystem properties collectively give rise to emergent patterns of ecosystem geography. Our final ecosystem, abiotic, and biotic models explained 25.2, 24.3, and 20.2 percent of variance, respectively. Vegetation-based variables were the most influential predictors for our ecosystem and biotic models, whereas topographic and hydrological predictors were foremost in our abiotic model. Predicted spatial patterns of forest ecosystem heterogeneity showed the strongest variations along elevational and east-west gradients. We provide an analytical road map for conservation scientists to model continuous variation in the biotic-abiotic makeup of ecosystems and to apply those predictions for mapping emergent spatial ecosystem patterns. Such spatial models are critical for improving understanding of the origins and organization of ecosystem heterogeneity, and for informing ecosystem conservation decisions at regional (e.g., nations, states, provinces) extents. Supplementary Material File (oikos_supporting-information.docx) oikos_supporting-information Download 2.07 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 12 May 2026 Collection Oikos Keywords ecology ecosystem prediction spatial ecology conservation ecosystem ecology ecological stoichiometry food web subsidies conservation biology geodiversity spatial ecology ecosystem conservation ecosystem mapping spatial modelling ecology ecosystem prediction spatial ecology conservation plant ecology biogeography microclimates tundra arctic metapopulation modelling dispersal metacommunity network ecosystem ecology ecological stoichiometry food web subsidies conservation biology community ecology ecosystem ecology non-native species ecosystem function global change Authors Affiliations Sean Basquill 0000-0003-1738-1543 [email protected] View all articles by this author Shawn Leroux 0000-0001-9580-0294 [email protected] Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Canada View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 19 views 11 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Sean Basquill, Shawn Leroux. Joint Biotic and Abiotic Spatial Turnover: A Basis for Modelling Ecosystem Patterns at Regional Extents. Authorea . 12 May 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/authorea.15003051/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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