Investigating the fertility rate and predicting birth trends in Lorestan from 2013 to 2022: A time series study

Abstract Following a sharp decline in the fertility rate among Iranian households and the inversion of the age pyramid of Iranians, Iranian society is facing a crisis of an aging population. This study is descriptive, analytical, and cross-sectional, and it utilized data recorded in the Statistics Department of Lorestan and Iran from 2013 to 2022. The ARIMA model was employed to predict the trend in the number of births over the next five years. The findings of this study revealed that the total fertility rate in Lorestan Province has decreased to 1.76 per woman, and the birth rate has decreased to 13 per 1000 people by 2022. The ARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1) model demonstrated that the number of births in Lorestan Province will decrease to 20,323 births by 2027. We have observed a decline in the overall fertility rate and birth rate in recent years until 2022, and the trend of declining births in Lorestan Province is projected to continue until 2027.