Forecasting the incidence of viral hepatitis C in the Kyrgyz Republic using SARIMA models

Forecasting the incidence of viral hepatitis C in the Kyrgyz Republic using SARIMA models | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Method Article Forecasting the incidence of viral hepatitis C in the Kyrgyz Republic using SARIMA models Dautov Timur Talgatovich, Z.Sh. Nurmatov, Abzhaparova Aiganysh Ziyaydinovna, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8396635/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Viral hepatitis remains one of the most significant public health problems in the Kyrgyz Republic. Despite the implementation of national immunization programs and improved epidemiological surveillance, hepatitis B and C continue to pose a serious threat to public health. According to official statistics from the Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, thousands of cases of viral hepatitis were registered between 2014 and 2023, with differences in the epidemiological structure and prevalence dynamics of individual forms of the disease. [1, 2, 3] According to the WHO, viral hepatitis C, characterized by a chronic course and a high risk of developing cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, is of particular concern. Despite the relative stabilization of the incidence, there remains a need to actively identify virus carriers and expand screening programs. [1,6]. The incidence of viral hepatitis B shows a steady downward trend, which is associated with the successful implementation of vaccination programs; however, the infection rate in some regions remains above the national average. Viral hepatitis A, on the contrary, exhibits pronounced seasonal fluctuations with epidemic increases in the autumn-winter period, which is associated with the feco-oral transmission mechanism and sanitary and hygienic conditions in populated areas. [9-10-12]. Forecasting viral hepatitis incidence dynamics using modern statistical methods such as ARIMA and SARIMA is an important tool for assessing future trends and planning preventive measures. [5] Modeling results enable healthcare authorities to promptly respond to potential epidemic surges, optimize resource allocation, and improve epidemiological surveillance strategies. The use of mathematical models that account for seasonality and trends is particularly relevant in the context of post-pandemic changes and reforms in the healthcare system of the Kyrgyz Republic. Thus, studying the dynamics of viral hepatitis and forecasting its spread is not only scientifically but also of high practical importance for ensuring the country's epidemiological security. Statistical Epidemiology Viral Hepatitis Hepatitis B Hepatitis C Epidemiological Monitoring Time Series Analysis Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files LineARIMAKG.xlsx TableforARIMA.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8396635","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Method Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":562458630,"identity":"1e4088f5-06bb-44ed-8aa6-20634466006e","order_by":0,"name":"Dautov Timur Talgatovich","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFCCBDApx8DAg+DhBTwgRQcYGIxJ15LYQLQWe/bkZ9IfKg6n9/OfPfyZhyHNroGgLTzPzCQOnDmcO3NGXpo0D0NOMmEtEglmEgfb0nI33OAxY+ZhqEgm6DAeifRvIC3pBufPGH8mUksOyBabBIMDOQYgh9kR1nLmTbHFmTM2hjNn5JhJzjFISyCohb09feONigoJeX7+M8Yf3lQk2xPUggYMQBFEKiDZllEwCkbBKBj+AADD/Dh8ZtW/pwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4725-4046","institution":"Osh State University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dautov","middleName":"Timur","lastName":"Talgatovich","suffix":""},{"id":562458631,"identity":"b98fec4e-5c4f-4040-abc3-80845cc291f8","order_by":1,"name":"Z.Sh. 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one of the most significant public health problems in the Kyrgyz Republic. Despite the implementation of national immunization programs and improved epidemiological surveillance, hepatitis B and C continue to pose a serious threat to public health. According to official statistics from the Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, thousands of cases of viral hepatitis were registered between 2014 and 2023, with differences in the epidemiological structure and prevalence dynamics of individual forms of the disease. [1, 2, 3]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to the WHO, viral hepatitis C, characterized by a chronic course and a high risk of developing cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, is of particular concern. Despite the relative stabilization of the incidence, there remains a need to actively identify virus carriers and expand screening programs. [1,6]. The incidence of viral hepatitis B shows a steady downward trend, which is associated with the successful implementation of vaccination programs; however, the infection rate in some regions remains above the national average. Viral hepatitis A, on the contrary, exhibits pronounced seasonal fluctuations with epidemic increases in the autumn-winter period, which is associated with the feco-oral transmission mechanism and sanitary and hygienic conditions in populated areas. [9-10-12].\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eForecasting viral hepatitis incidence dynamics using modern statistical methods such as ARIMA and SARIMA is an important tool for assessing future trends and planning preventive measures. [5] Modeling results enable healthcare authorities to promptly respond to potential epidemic surges, optimize resource allocation, and improve epidemiological surveillance strategies. The use of mathematical models that account for seasonality and trends is particularly relevant in the context of post-pandemic changes and reforms in the healthcare system of the Kyrgyz Republic. Thus, studying the dynamics of viral hepatitis and forecasting its spread is not only scientifically but also of high practical importance for ensuring the country's epidemiological security.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Forecasting the incidence of viral hepatitis C in the Kyrgyz Republic using SARIMA models","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-22 06:00:07","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8396635/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"f0d16ebf-55c1-4009-8b82-2acdf681deab","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":60041463,"name":"Statistical Epidemiology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-21T13:11:45+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-22 06:00:07","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8396635","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8396635","identity":"rs-8396635","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}