Epidemiology and burden of early-onset cardiovascular disease in China: A bayesian modelling study

Epidemiology and burden of early-onset cardiovascular disease in China: A bayesian modelling study | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 9 October 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Epidemiology and burden of early-onset cardiovascular disease in China: A bayesian modelling study Authors : Yao Xiao , Yuting Wu , Jiayi Wang* , Xiaofan Gao6 , Xinrui Qi , Yingrui Guo , Jitao Ling , … Show All … , Jing Zhang , Zhuang Zhao , Wenli Gu , Peng Yu , Tongsheng Huang , Wenting Wang , Yangxin Chen , Jingfeng Wang , Xiao Liu* [email protected] , and Yuling Zhang Show Fewer Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176003630.07567011/v1 142 views 105 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Background and objectives: Early-onset cardiovascular disease (ECVD) poses a growing public health challenge in China. We quantified incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ECVD from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to 2035. Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we analyzed ECVD (onset <55 years in males, <65 years in females) by sex and age, reporting age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and DALY (ASDR) rates, with uncertainty intervals (UIs). Risk factor attribution and projections used established GBD frameworks. Results: In 2021, ECVD affected 1.71 million males and 2.93 million females, causing 236,000 and 259,000 deaths and 11.41 and 10.77 million DALYs, respectively. Females had higher ASIR and ASPR (ASIR: 337.96 vs 234.81; ASPR: 3332.87 vs 2057.09), but lower ASMR and ASDR (ASMR: 27.20 vs 29.09; ASDR: 1190.73 vs 1481.45) than males. From 1990 to 2021, ASMR and ASDR declined (males: −1.44% and −1.41% average annual percent change; females: −3.71% and −3.28%). In 2021, ischemic heart disease led male ECVD deaths and DALYs; intracerebral hemorrhage led in females. High systolic blood pressure was the dominant metabolic risk factor; smoking in males and hypertension in females were principal behavioral/metabolic contributors. Projections indicate continued declines in ASMR and ASDR through 2035. Conclusions: Despite rising or stable incidence, ECVD mortality and DALY rates have decreased in China since 1990, with sex-specific patterns. Stroke and ischemic heart disease remain the major contributors. Intensified control of hypertension and tobacco use is critical to further reduce premature ECVD burden. Supplementary Material File (manuscript.docx) Download 131.34 KB File (tables.docx) Download 35.68 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 09 October 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords cardiovascular disease early-onset cardiovascular disease global burden of disease Authors Affiliations Yao Xiao Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital View all articles by this author Yuting Wu Nanchang University Jiangxi Medical College View all articles by this author Jiayi Wang* Hunan University of Chinese Medicine College of Acupuncture & Tuina and Rehabilitation View all articles by this author Xiaofan Gao6 Nanchang University Jiangxi Medical College View all articles by this author Xinrui Qi Nanchang University Queen Mary School View all articles by this author Yingrui Guo Nanchang University Jiangxi Medical College View all articles by this author Jitao Ling Nanchang University Jiangxi Medical College View all articles by this author Jing Zhang Nanchang University Jiangxi Medical College View all articles by this author Zhuang Zhao Hunan University of Chinese Medicine College of Acupuncture & Tuina and Rehabilitation View all articles by this author Wenli Gu The University of Hong Kong School of Biological Sciences View all articles by this author Peng Yu Nanchang University Jiangxi Medical College View all articles by this author Tongsheng Huang Shenzhen University School of Basic Medical Sciences View all articles by this author Wenting Wang The Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University View all articles by this author Yangxin Chen Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital View all articles by this author Jingfeng Wang Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital View all articles by this author Xiao Liu* [email protected] Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital View all articles by this author Yuling Zhang Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 142 views 105 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Yao Xiao, Yuting Wu, Jiayi Wang*, et al. Epidemiology and burden of early-onset cardiovascular disease in China: A bayesian modelling study. Authorea . 09 October 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176003630.07567011/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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