Semaglutide is Associated with Improved Breast Cancer Survival, Lower Metastatic Burden, and a Dose–Survival Relationship Uncoupled from Weight-Loss Magnitude

Metabolic dysfunction is increasingly recognized as a risk factor for poor outcomes in breast cancer, but whether incretin-based therapies confer survival benefit beyond weight loss remains unresolved. Using a federated electronic health record platform spanning nearly 29 million patients, we evaluated breast cancer survival after semaglutide and tirzepatide initiation in routine care. In 1:1 propensity-matched pooled-comparator analyses, semaglutide was associated with improved overall survival versus metformin, sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitor users, with 54 deaths among 2,433 semaglutide users (2.2%) versus 395 deaths among 2,433 comparators (16.2%) over 24 months (log-rank P < 0.001). Tirzepatide showed a favorable survival association relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators that did not meet statistical significance (P = 0.24), with 3 deaths among 220 users (1.4%) versus 64 deaths among 220 comparators (29.1%). In a head-to-head propensity-score–matched comparison, overall survival did not differ significantly between semaglutide- and tirzepatide-treated patients with pre-existing breast cancer (2,117 per arm; P = 0.12). In semaglutide-treated patients alive and observable at the 1-year landmark, higher maximum dose achieved was significantly associated with lower post-landmark mortality (P = 0.034), with an event rate of approximately 1.0% in the high-dose group (≥1.7 mg) versus approximately 4.5% in the low-dose group (0.25–1.0 mg). Despite a linear dose–weight loss relationship for semaglutide, however, weight-loss strata did not separate survival outcomes (global P = 0.22). In tirzepatide-treated patients alive and observable at the same landmark, neither maximum dose achieved nor weight-loss strata separated post-landmark survival (P = 0.98 and P = 0.50, respectively). Structured EHR and AI-based clinical-note analyses further showed significantly lower frequency of documented metastatic disease in semaglutide-treated patients relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators, including any metastasis (7.0% versus 15.0%, rate ratio 0.5, P < 0.001), bone metastasis (1.0% versus 5.2%, rate ratio 0.2, P < 0.001), and liver, lung, or brain metastases (all P < 0.001). LLM-derived cause-of-death extraction further showed a 60% lower relative proportion of cancer-associated deaths in semaglutide-treated patients (19% of ascertainable deaths) than in matched pooled anti-diabetic comparators (47% of ascertainable deaths), with comparator deaths more often attributed to cancer progression involving metastatic breast cancer, leptomeningeal carcinomatosis, and cancer-driven organ failure. Overall, this study demonstrates that semaglutide use in patients with pre-existing breast cancer is associated with a dose-correlated but weight-loss independent improvement in overall survival. These findings motivate prospective trials of GLP-1 receptor agonists in breast cancer across various stages and treatment settings.