How large should forest harvest compartments be: insights from a simulation study within boreal black spruce forest

How large should forest harvest compartments be: insights from a simulation study within boreal black spruce forest | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article How large should forest harvest compartments be: insights from a simulation study within boreal black spruce forest Hakim Ouzennou, Frédéric Raulier, Yan Feng, Kenneth A. Anyomi, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8845075/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract From forest value chain optimization perspectives, existing long-term forest management plans are non-optimal because they pay little attention to location and spatial issues that are critical to timber supply costing. In this study, we designed a simulation experiment to measure the impact of harvest compartment size (with variable spatial details) on the uncertainty in standing volume estimations and examined options to protect timber supply under varying compartment size types. Data for the study came from a commercial forest, thus, represent real cases of harvested areas, transportation, loading and hauling, road construction and maintenance costs. In order to evaluate the impact of the size of forest compartments on the variability in standing volume, we created seven forest compartment size types including 61 km 2 , 12, 6, 3.0, 2.0, 1.5, and 1.0 km 2 using the Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator (SELES). Merchantable wood volumes were estimated for each forest stand within a compartment using a non-parametric nearest neighbour method and a bootstrap procedure was used to estimate the coefficient of variation (CV) associated with the mean standing volume of each compartment size type. We developed four models that offer variable protection against potential disruptions (variability) in timber supply related to compartment size type variability. We implemented each of these plans with Monte Carlo simulations using the IBM ILOG optimization programming language and solved them using ILOG CPLEX optimizer. Results show that, reducing the harvest compartment size from 61 km 2 to 1.5 km 2 led to an increase of the CV of standing volume from 6% to 11%. With the compartment size of 1.2 km 2 , our simulation experiment failed to converge even after 12 hours of running. Since the minimum tolerable CV of 11%, is equivalent to the CV of the compartment size of 1.5 km 2 , we recommend maintaining a minimum compartment size of 1.5 km 2 . Methods that modify the even-flow constraint such as the periodic model, or the adaptive model tested in this paper are preferable as opposed to an approach where the targeted periodic timber revenue is reduced by a fixed percentage across the planning horizon. Forestry Timber supply planning standing volume harvest compartment size number of harvest compartments target revenue cost of protection simulation landscape simulator Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8845075","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":589239224,"identity":"253c1a39-43cd-4894-816c-ba8031aedb5d","order_by":0,"name":"Hakim Ouzennou","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, Direction des Inventaires Forestiers, 5700, 4e Avenue Ouest, Québec, Québec, G1H 6R1, Canada.","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hakim","middleName":"","lastName":"Ouzennou","suffix":""},{"id":589239225,"identity":"ca77d331-0d65-4787-ae9d-fa5f30153a94","order_by":1,"name":"Frédéric Raulier","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Centre d’Étude de la Forêt, Faculté de Foresterie, de Géographie et de Géomatique, Université Laval, 2405 rue de la Terrasse, Québec, Québec, G1V 0A6, Canada","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Frédéric","middleName":"","lastName":"Raulier","suffix":""},{"id":589239226,"identity":"c015c87e-ae5e-4573-a48d-8dfed37dda57","order_by":2,"name":"Yan Feng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Département de management, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, 3351 Boulevard des Forges, Trois-Rivières, Québec, G9A 5H7, Canada.","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yan","middleName":"","lastName":"Feng","suffix":""},{"id":589239227,"identity":"6fe776b8-fb2e-4349-9a52-616fbcb4e197","order_by":3,"name":"Kenneth A. 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In this study, we designed a simulation experiment to measure the impact of harvest compartment size (with variable spatial details) on the uncertainty in standing volume estimations and examined options to protect timber supply under varying compartment size types. Data for the study came from a commercial forest, thus, represent real cases of harvested areas, transportation, loading and hauling, road construction and maintenance costs. In order to evaluate the impact of the size of forest compartments on the variability in standing volume, we created seven forest compartment size types including 61 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e, 12, 6, 3.0, 2.0, 1.5, and 1.0 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e using the Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator (SELES). Merchantable wood volumes were estimated for each forest stand within a compartment using a non-parametric nearest neighbour method and a bootstrap procedure was used to estimate the coefficient of variation (CV) associated with the mean standing volume of each compartment size type. We developed four models that offer variable protection against potential disruptions (variability) in timber supply related to compartment size type variability. We implemented each of these plans with Monte Carlo simulations using the IBM ILOG optimization programming language and solved them using ILOG CPLEX optimizer. Results show that, reducing the harvest compartment size from 61 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e to 1.5 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e led to an increase of the CV of standing volume from 6% to 11%. With the compartment size of 1.2 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e, our simulation experiment failed to converge even after 12 hours of running. Since the minimum tolerable CV of 11%, is equivalent to the CV of the compartment size of 1.5 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e, we recommend maintaining a minimum compartment size of 1.5 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e. Methods that modify the even-flow constraint such as the periodic model, or the adaptive model tested in this paper are preferable as opposed to an approach where the targeted periodic timber revenue is reduced by a fixed percentage across the planning horizon.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"How large should forest harvest compartments be: insights from a simulation study within boreal black spruce forest","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-12 03:37:58","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8845075/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"19710df2-d851-4ab2-bc63-51e92baad2f4","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 12th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":62696119,"name":"Forestry"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-12T03:37:58+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-12 03:37:58","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8845075","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8845075","identity":"rs-8845075","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}