Linking Long-term Arctic Surface Variability and Changes in the Stratosphere, Mesosphere, and Lower Thermosphere

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This study shows the polar vortex weakened then strengthened due to changing Arctic sea surface temperatures impacting planetary waves, which in turn altered mesosphere and lower thermosphere zonal winds and the solar semidiurnal tide.

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The paper examines long-term trends in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) from 1980 onward using MERRA-2 reanalysis and evaluates how these trends affect the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) with SD-WACCM-X specified-dynamics whole-atmosphere simulations. It finds that the SPV weakened until the early 2000s and then strengthened, attributing the shift to changes in planetary wave activity—especially wavenumber-1—linked to long-term Arctic surface variability, with increasing sea surface temperatures near the Barents-Kara Sea before 2000 and in the Central North Pacific afterward as primary drivers. The study further reports that the SPV trend corresponds to changes in zonal winds and to migrating solar semidiurnal tide (SW2) variability, including ~13%/decade positive SW2 trends from 1980 to the early 2000s and ~14%/decade negative trends afterward. This paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.

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Abstract

We present the long-term trends of the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) using the Modern Era Retrospective Research analysis for Research and Application-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data and assess its impact on the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) using Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X) simulations. Our findings reveal that the SPV showed a weakening trend from 1980 until the early 2000s, but a strengthening trend after 2000s. This change is attributed to the weakening of the planetary wave (PW) activities, particularly the wavenumber-1, which can be driven by long-term Arctic surface changes. The increasing sea surface temperature (SST) over/nearby the Barents-Kara Sea before 2000s and over the Central North Pacific region after 2000s are primary causes of the observed PWs activity. Furthermore, we observe that the SPV trend influences the zonal winds and migrating solar semidiurnal tide (SW2) in the MLT. The SW2 exhibits a ~13%/decade positive trend from 1980 to the early 2000s and a ~14%/decade negative trend after 2000s. These results provide evidence of the impact of Arctic surface variabilities, including sea-ice, on the MLT dynamics, especially SW2 tide.
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Linking Long-term Arctic Surface Variability and Changes in the Stratosphere, Mesosphere, and Lower Thermosphere | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 3 September 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Linking Long-term Arctic Surface Variability and Changes in the Stratosphere, Mesosphere, and Lower Thermosphere Authors : Sunil Kumar 0000-0003-1789-2060 [email protected] , Jens Oberheide 0000-0001-6721-2540 , Jiarong Zhang 0000-0002-8733-2336 , Nicholas Michael Pedatella 0000-0002-8878-5126 , and Xian Lu 0000-0002-2535-8151 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175693400.09542200/v1 Published Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Version of record Peer review timeline 218 views 152 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract We present the long-term trends of the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) using the Modern Era Retrospective Research analysis for Research and Application-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data and assess its impact on the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) using Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X) simulations. Our findings reveal that the SPV showed a weakening trend from 1980 until the early 2000s, but a strengthening trend after 2000s. This change is attributed to the weakening of the planetary wave (PW) activities, particularly the wavenumber-1, which can be driven by long-term Arctic surface changes. The increasing sea surface temperature (SST) over/nearby the Barents-Kara Sea before 2000s and over the Central North Pacific region after 2000s are primary causes of the observed PWs activity. Furthermore, we observe that the SPV trend influences the zonal winds and migrating solar semidiurnal tide (SW2) in the MLT. The SW2 exhibits a ~13%/decade positive trend from 1980 to the early 2000s and a ~14%/decade negative trend after 2000s. These results provide evidence of the impact of Arctic surface variabilities, including sea-ice, on the MLT dynamics, especially SW2 tide. Supplementary Material File (1046742_0_merged_1756414983.pdf) Download 4.94 MB File (agu_suppinfo.docx) Download 186.47 KB File (ms-r1-final.docx) Download 9.73 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 03 September 2025 Peer review timeline Published Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Version of Record 18 Nov 2025 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords arctic atmospheric sciences migrating solar semidiurnal tide mlt sd-waccm-x sea surface temperature stratospheric polar vortex Authors Affiliations Sunil Kumar 0000-0003-1789-2060 [email protected] Clemson University View all articles by this author Jens Oberheide 0000-0001-6721-2540 Clemson University View all articles by this author Jiarong Zhang 0000-0002-8733-2336 Utah State University View all articles by this author Nicholas Michael Pedatella 0000-0002-8878-5126 National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) View all articles by this author Xian Lu 0000-0002-2535-8151 Clemson University View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 218 views 152 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Sunil Kumar, Jens Oberheide, Jiarong Zhang, et al. Linking Long-term Arctic Surface Variability and Changes in the Stratosphere, Mesosphere, and Lower Thermosphere. Authorea . 03 September 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175693400.09542200/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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