Long-term life history predicts current elderly gut microbiome

Abstract Extensive scientific and clinical microbiome studies have explored contemporary variation and dynamics of the gut microbiome in human health and disease1–4, yet the role of long-term life-history effects is underinvestigated. Here, we analyzed the current microbiome composition in the elderly Bruneck Study cohort (n = 304; age 65–98) with extensive clinical, demographic, lifestyle, and nutritional data collected over the past 26 years. Combined analysis with the Flemish Gut Flora Project cohort (FGFP; n = 2,215; age 18–85) showed community richness increasing during aging linked to increased observation of low-abundance bacteria. Multivariate analysis of historical variables indicated that medication history, historical physical activity, past dietary habits, and specific past laboratory parameters explain a significant fraction of current elderly quantitative microbiome variation, enlarging the explanatory power of contemporary covariates by 33.4%. Prediction of current enterotype by past host variables revealed good levels of predictability (AUC > 0.7) for the Prevotella and dysbiotic Bacteroides 2 enterotypes with information from up to 15 years past. These findings demonstrate long-term life history effects on the microbiota and provide first insights into lifestyle variables and their role in maintaining a healthy gut microbiota in later life.