Interplay of weather patterns and Wildfire in Tsavo Conservation Area, Kenya.

Interplay of weather patterns and Wildfire in Tsavo Conservation Area, Kenya. | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Interplay of weather patterns and Wildfire in Tsavo Conservation Area, Kenya. naftal kariuki, David Chiawo, Eunice Kairu, Jemimah Simbauni This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3836295/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Fire Ecology → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: Wildfires, in recent years have caused devastating destructions in many parts of the world due to extreme weather conditions. Wildfire trend in Tsavo Conservation Area in Kenya is not well understood and published articles on wildfires in the region are limited. Our study aimed at establishing the relationship between weather and Wildfire pattern in Tsavo Conservation Area, which is in southeastern side of Kenya. Such information could be useful in predicting the likelihood of Wildfire occurrence. Hence making Wildfire management easier and sustainable. Results: We obtained secondary data for Wildfire occurrence and climatic factors to establish: Relationship between Wildfires and weather patterns, Wildfire seasons, Wildfire predictive models and Wildfire indicators combination matrix model. Our study obtained remote sensed Wildfires data for 19-year period from 2002 – 2020 from National Aeronautical and Space Administration website. We also obtained weather data for the same period from the Kenya Meteorological Department. The data provided by Kenya Meteorological Department included temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and humidity. Our study used Generalized Additive Model with poison distribution and Spearman Correlation to analyze the relationship between Wildfire occurrence and weather variables. The year 2020 recorded the highest number of Wildfire of 481 during the study period. We established the wildfire season for the Tsavo Conservation Area to be from June to October. September recorded the highest average number of Wildfires of 690 within the 19-year period. Humidity is the best predictor for wildfires in Tsavo Conservation Area. Our study also came up with a Matrix Model that could be used to identify months of the year that are likely to experience high Wildfire occurrence. Conclusion: The findings would be very useful in Wildfire management as they provide new knowledge on Wildfire occurrences in the area. Humidity factors being the best in predicting Wildfires and June-October being the Wildfire season for Tsavo Conservation Area forms such knowledge. The Matrix Model provide the basis for further studies in Wildfire forecast. Climatic factors humidity matrix model Tsavo Conservation Area weather pattern Wildfire. Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Fire Ecology → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Mar, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 22 Jan, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 08 Jan, 2024 First submitted to journal 03 Jan, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3836295","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":268562343,"identity":"26e20f6e-c0e1-4604-be6e-a655dcfb6b2d","order_by":0,"name":"naftal kariuki","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA80lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxgcMDAUJDAzMQJhQwcBgQFgLs2EDgwFMyxmStIA0MbYRocWc/TD7gx8GafLm7TzGBg/nHZY3Z28+wPCjYhtOLZY9yYyNPQY5hnMO8xgnJG47bLiz51gCY8+Z2zi1GBzIP9jAY1DBOIOZx/gAUAvjhhs5BsyMbXi0nH/M2PjHoMIeomXOYXvCWm4kMzbzGOQkgrQkJDYcTiRCy2PG2TIGackzmNmKDRKOpSdvOHMs4SBev5xPZvj4piLZdgb/4c2SP2qsbTccbz744EcFbi3ooBlMHiBaPRDUkaJ4FIyCUTAKRggAAG1BWdtTwmi/AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7872-5106","institution":"GaU: Garissa University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"naftal","middleName":"","lastName":"kariuki","suffix":""},{"id":268562344,"identity":"132a34a2-cb95-45b2-ad10-1dcdde5edf78","order_by":1,"name":"David Chiawo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Strathmore University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Chiawo","suffix":""},{"id":268562345,"identity":"d19e818e-b0ad-4a99-808c-2f2a3b231eb4","order_by":2,"name":"Eunice Kairu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kenyatta University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eunice","middleName":"","lastName":"Kairu","suffix":""},{"id":268562346,"identity":"01d47072-8770-4b3b-81cd-f4cc78b3ddb1","order_by":3,"name":"Jemimah Simbauni","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kenyatta University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jemimah","middleName":"","lastName":"Simbauni","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-01-05 05:21:39","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3836295/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3836295/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-025-00351-w","type":"published","date":"2025-04-02T15:57:03+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80082054,"identity":"1fcf8b50-790c-4343-ac4e-5693e15136a4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 16:06:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":725439,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Journalmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3836295/v1_covered_53138d1c-2120-4482-b485-59d5fd096817.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Interplay of weather patterns and Wildfire in Tsavo Conservation Area, Kenya.","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"fire-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"feco","sideBox":"Learn more about [Fire Ecology](https://www.springer.com/journal/42408)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/feco/default.aspx","title":"Fire Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Climatic factors, humidity, matrix model, Tsavo Conservation Area, weather pattern, Wildfire.","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3836295/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3836295/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground:\u003c/strong\u003e Wildfires, in recent years have caused devastating destructions in many parts of the world due to extreme weather conditions.\u0026nbsp; Wildfire trend in Tsavo Conservation Area in Kenya is not well understood and published articles on wildfires in the region are limited. Our study aimed at establishing the relationship between weather and Wildfire pattern in Tsavo Conservation Area, which is in southeastern side of Kenya. Such information could be useful in predicting the likelihood of Wildfire occurrence. Hence making Wildfire management easier and sustainable. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults: \u003c/strong\u003eWe obtained secondary data for Wildfire occurrence and climatic factors to establish: Relationship between Wildfires and weather patterns, Wildfire seasons, Wildfire predictive models and Wildfire indicators combination matrix model. \u0026nbsp;Our study obtained remote sensed Wildfires data for 19-year period from 2002 – 2020 from National Aeronautical and Space Administration website. We also obtained weather data for the same period from the Kenya Meteorological Department. The data provided by Kenya Meteorological Department included temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and humidity. Our study used Generalized Additive Model with poison distribution and Spearman Correlation to analyze the relationship between Wildfire occurrence and weather variables. The year 2020 recorded the highest number of Wildfire of 481 during the study period. We established the wildfire season for the Tsavo Conservation Area to be from June to October. September recorded the highest average number of Wildfires of 690 within the 19-year period. Humidity is the best predictor for wildfires in Tsavo Conservation Area. Our study also came up with a Matrix Model that could be used to identify months of the year that are likely to experience high Wildfire occurrence.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion:\u003c/strong\u003e The findings would be very useful in Wildfire management as they provide new knowledge on Wildfire occurrences in the area. Humidity factors being the best in predicting Wildfires and June-October being the Wildfire season for Tsavo Conservation Area forms such knowledge. 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