Clicks to Chants: Google Searches for “Protest” Predict Offline Protest Participation Across English-Speaking Democracies.

In this paper, we test and quantify the link between online searches for the term "protest" and subsequent offline protest counts. Multilevel analyses of two large datasets spanning multiple years and countries reveal a robust positive association between online search activity and real-world protest attendance. A 1% increase in online searches for the term "protest" is associated with a subsequent rise in the number of offline protests of 1.21 in the US the same week. This relationship replicated across 23 English-speaking democracies. Overall, a 1% increase in online searches for the term “protest” was linked with 1.14 more offline protest counts and was associated with 1.33 more riot (i.e. violent protest) counts. Our results demonstrate the predictive validity of generic online search terms offering researchers, policymakers and activists a valuable indicator for monitoring and forecasting shifts in civic engagement.