Technological learning potential of offshore wind technology and underlying cost drivers

Abstract Detailed analysis of technological learning of energy technologies is scarce. For floating wind, this is missing altogether. In this study, we applied experience curve and bottom-up cost modeling methodologies and assessed the long-term cost reduction potential of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind in their mature markets. The contributing factors to cost reduction are also quantified and elaborated. Further, to emphasize the role of strongly varying site characteristics of offshore wind farms and their influences, the grid connection cost is separately discussed from the total technology costs (Capital Expenditure and LCoE). Our assessment shows that, excluding grid connection costs, fixed-bottom offshore wind LCoE is 40 €/MWh at 31 GW cumulative capacity (2023–2024) and decline to 28 ± 3 €/MWh by 100 GW. Floating wind LCoE is 123 €/MWh at 1 GW cumulative capacity (2027 – 2030) but decline to 33 ± 6 €/MWh by 100 GW. Moreover, floating wind can achieve cost parity (i.e., 40 €/MWh, excl. grid connection cost) by deploying 21 GW, requiring 44 billion € of learning investment in the form of subsidies to compensate the price gap for the technology in the energy system. Lastly, we analyzed the grid connection costs and their influencing factors, and then determined that an integrated offshore grid would be needed to efficiently connect future offshore wind farms to the onshore grid.