How will climate change influence phosphorus systems? -- an expert elicitation workshop

How will climate change influence phosphorus systems? -- an expert elicitation workshop | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 9 September 2025 V1 Latest version Share on How will climate change influence phosphorus systems? -- an expert elicitation workshop Authors : Camilla Negri 0000-0001-8917-5322 [email protected] , Golnaz Ezzati , Philip Haygarth 0000-0002-1672-6290 , Merrin Macrae 0000-0003-3296-3103 , Per-Erik Mellander , Bryan Spears , Sara Trojahn , Johanna Wandel , and Marc Stutter 0000-0003-1483-376X Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175743491.11197660/v1 261 views 138 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Phosphorus (P) sustainability is a ‘wicked problem’ due to environmental and societal challenges. This may be further exacerbated by climate change, although within-discipline literature is lacking. Our knowledge of how climate change may impact P dynamics is challenged by our understanding of baseline vs managed system response signals, complex biophysical and societal process interactions and thresholds. This challenge was discussed at the 10th International P Workshop, where experts from academia and industry gathered. We asked international experts to discuss the impacts of climate change on P across three topics: soils, waters, and human systems. Participants discussed knowledge and data availability on these topics, and positioned their responses on a matrix with importance (relevance of the impact according to their understanding and knowledge) and confidence (about the data availability regarding that impact) as axes. The 320 statements were digitized and categorized into themes, and we report them in context with the current literature. Our analysis emphasizes that phosphorus must become more visible in climate change discourse and addressed through transdisciplinary approaches. We recommend further data collection regarding circular economy and climate adaptation, as well as modelling and policy development to anticipate risks and support adaptive P management. This includes attention to thresholds and socio-economic linkages, where consequences of inaction may be abrupt and widespread. We provide suggestions for research and practice, including forthcoming International Phosphorus Workshops. Supplementary Material File (jeq-2025-09-0398-tr.docx) Download 3.96 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 09 September 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License Keywords adaptation agricultural climate change environmental sciences geography hydrology nutrient governance phosphorus soil sciences tipping points Authors Affiliations Camilla Negri 0000-0001-8917-5322 [email protected] Toronto Metropolitan University View all articles by this author Golnaz Ezzati Teagasc Environment Research Centre Johnstown Castle View all articles by this author Philip Haygarth 0000-0002-1672-6290 Lancaster University View all articles by this author Merrin Macrae 0000-0003-3296-3103 University of Waterloo View all articles by this author Per-Erik Mellander Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority View all articles by this author Bryan Spears Centre for Ecology and Hydrology View all articles by this author Sara Trojahn The James Hutton Institute - Aberdeen Campus View all articles by this author Johanna Wandel University of Waterloo View all articles by this author Marc Stutter 0000-0003-1483-376X The James Hutton Institute - Aberdeen Campus View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 261 views 138 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Camilla Negri, Golnaz Ezzati, Philip Haygarth, et al. How will climate change influence phosphorus systems? -- an expert elicitation workshop. Authorea . 09 September 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175743491.11197660/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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