Network Impact Assessment and Stability Enhancement through Markov Chain Analysis and Load Balancing

Network Impact Assessment and Stability Enhancement through Markov Chain Analysis and Load Balancing | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Network Impact Assessment and Stability Enhancement through Markov Chain Analysis and Load Balancing Shinya Mizuno, Haruka Ohba This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8140510/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study proposes a methodology for analyzing and improving network stability using discrete Markov chains. By modeling device transitions in network logs as Markov chains, we developed two models: a Network Impact Assessment Model and a Network Stability Optimization Model. The Network Impact Assessment Model quantifies device impact through three metrics: self-impact, inbound impact, and outbound impact. Analysis of 28-day network logs revealed that certain critical infrastructure devices, particularly authentication servers and core network components, demonstrated significantly high impact values, indicating their crucial role in network operations. To enhance network stability, we implemented a Network Stability Optimization Model that strategically replicates high-impact devices. The optimal configuration involved duplicating two critical infrastructure nodes and one authentication server, which proved effective in optimizing three objective functions: device-level stabilization, overall network load balancing, and minimization of daily maximum device load standard deviation. This optimization reduced the maximum deviation from the mean impact value from approximately 7.0 to 4.5, improving stability while maintaining fundamental network functionality. The proposed methodology effectively identifies critical network devices and provides a practical load balancing approach through strategic device replication. Our findings contribute to the development of more robust network architectures and offer valuable insights for network administrators managing complex systems. Physical sciences/Engineering Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Markov chains network stability device impact assessment load balancing stability optimization Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 06 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Dec, 2025 Editor invited by journal 24 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 18 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 18 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 17 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8140510","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":556578868,"identity":"09c29b2c-3329-488c-aadf-d2ab21f38351","order_by":0,"name":"Shinya Mizuno","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABE0lEQVRIie2QMUvEMBTHXyhkMSXrK0LvK6QUDlzOr2IpODkIB4eDSEGIizoXvA9xh18gJdDx5g431OXmE0F0EZNeRQ4adBTMb3h5PPLj/RMAj+ePorrKgLS4G4iukuJnJRBGwV8p0CvUXv9WXIyKg6x6l+sYmN5cHMn1FT+8XrZwOYHgYXiNUOFCRXKTQijHjWkwmtdTAXUOZK6GFTBKInVWcEaNolE0Z2MEqoCUJ45gRsl65dwqx53y4VbABqusEt5S6LagUYh0K0KHi6pY6ZSyOkVc6ahsTqciu8+Z6y2jm7vH57eZjjnLn15wpjkv82W7fZ3EiePHIOhPanv8mppILCmHjT3Idi8Auu55PB7PP+MTaNVbekRGuhgAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Juntendo University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shinya","middleName":"","lastName":"Mizuno","suffix":""},{"id":556578870,"identity":"d2133e58-bb45-4911-b1ce-7c134a27bfed","order_by":1,"name":"Haruka Ohba","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Juntendo University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haruka","middleName":"","lastName":"Ohba","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-18 03:38:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8140510/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8140510/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97674145,"identity":"2e8bfa42-0083-4489-b868-cb43fff06914","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:42:29","extension":"docx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":58192,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NetworkImpactAssessmentandStabilityEnhancementthroughMarkovChainAnalysisandLoadBalancing20251118.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/354bb7059821627afc5aef17.docx"},{"id":97646812,"identity":"bec95011-b155-45b0-a5f5-076d85bbe482","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 04:59:27","extension":"json","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4945,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"294c0c065b8e47e3a45fc99661968cf8.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/5c82e5fc9293151e523c23eb.json"},{"id":97646816,"identity":"4d6ce9b5-d7a5-483b-8404-9816a6b81bc9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 04:59:27","extension":"xml","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":125081,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"294c0c065b8e47e3a45fc99661968cf81enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/295cd3f1e4d9ac067002119d.xml"},{"id":97674181,"identity":"eb6a1445-3500-452e-8a57-26d40fc035e6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:42:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1159400,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig10meanabsolutedeviationboxplotth40.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/75a06a8df7ff5aa6a0619fa8.pdf"},{"id":97673663,"identity":"2ffd1018-6790-4702-b53e-09725446674f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:40:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":58843,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig1devicecountovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/e1eef340c465909ea24e03b4.pdf"},{"id":97646813,"identity":"ef45701f-0291-41c2-9d80-1fe3db1e6971","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 04:59:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":58354,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig2equivalenceclasscountovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/d6c6e3744c8f6a85704b354c.pdf"},{"id":97646817,"identity":"635e55d4-8ca6-41e4-915f-4b56dbcd4bfb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 04:59:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":241700,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig3undirectedcentralityovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/7a1c4580cf17839d0a0b1305.pdf"},{"id":97672438,"identity":"d7e0aab5-df35-436a-a24d-a98f660cf355","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:37:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":17,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":272479,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig4indegreecentralityovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/b10cf494d4f643e4683675ae.pdf"},{"id":97646821,"identity":"b9cf1957-1e0a-4438-9b8b-78053e3c104f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 04:59:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":263112,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig5outdegreecentralityovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/1576dbcc8fac09366a0810c6.pdf"},{"id":97674029,"identity":"3c799a4f-dba1-4f67-b5f2-03470726176f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:42:11","extension":"pdf","order_by":19,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":201053,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig6totalinfluenceovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/dc539379eb6b55b74354c25e.pdf"},{"id":97646824,"identity":"0c6223e3-4664-48e2-ae1d-46d06beb3142","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 04:59:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":20,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":237147,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig7selfinfluenceovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/e121c2696df1d3152955df0c.pdf"},{"id":97646820,"identity":"5c7c6b5a-19be-442e-ba66-b1a71fe8d56f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 04:59:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":21,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":198529,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig8inboundinfluenceovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/a8d383bb7e03c922dcb31b3f.pdf"},{"id":97673855,"identity":"90f1e7bc-ea25-4627-a35f-8d65d2161474","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:41:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":22,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":184787,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fig9outboundinfluenceovertime.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/f3a47962fe88fe92ae924d63.pdf"},{"id":97673865,"identity":"3a574b2b-6f73-4daf-9b10-77d44eb5f9bf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:41:41","extension":"xml","order_by":23,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":124625,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"294c0c065b8e47e3a45fc99661968cf81structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/5a032eeaaa0678937a6ca74b.xml"},{"id":97646825,"identity":"e415e9a7-ef08-4376-82b9-2541f8091767","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 04:59:28","extension":"html","order_by":24,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":145103,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1/75ab55d128b38f0a52fdb229.html"},{"id":97893139,"identity":"f9983a7c-b7b6-4bb3-9aec-30bf26e7c94a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-10 15:27:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1554694,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NetworkImpactAssessmentandStabilityEnhancementthroughMarkovChainAnalysisandLoadBalancing.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8140510/v1_covered_94c197c3-dd8b-40d8-b147-be560f86fae1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Network Impact Assessment and Stability Enhancement through Markov Chain Analysis and Load Balancing","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Markov chains, network stability, device impact assessment, load balancing, stability optimization","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8140510/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8140510/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study proposes a methodology for analyzing and improving network stability using discrete Markov chains. By modeling device transitions in network logs as Markov chains, we developed two models: a Network Impact Assessment Model and a Network Stability Optimization Model. The Network Impact Assessment Model quantifies device impact through three metrics: self-impact, inbound impact, and outbound impact. Analysis of 28-day network logs revealed that certain critical infrastructure devices, particularly authentication servers and core network components, demonstrated significantly high impact values, indicating their crucial role in network operations.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo enhance network stability, we implemented a Network Stability Optimization Model that strategically replicates high-impact devices. The optimal configuration involved duplicating two critical infrastructure nodes and one authentication server, which proved effective in optimizing three objective functions: device-level stabilization, overall network load balancing, and minimization of daily maximum device load standard deviation. This optimization reduced the maximum deviation from the mean impact value from approximately 7.0 to 4.5, improving stability while maintaining fundamental network functionality.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe proposed methodology effectively identifies critical network devices and provides a practical load balancing approach through strategic device replication. Our findings contribute to the development of more robust network architectures and offer valuable insights for network administrators managing complex systems.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Network Impact Assessment and Stability Enhancement through Markov Chain Analysis and Load Balancing","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-08 04:59:23","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8140510/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-02-09T20:15:49+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-06T08:10:22+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"116488866904872838361320086303301940461","date":"2026-01-24T05:31:23+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-22T13:38:52+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"205130202321324266318905376057331611610","date":"2025-12-08T09:09:48+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-04T19:17:29+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-11-24T14:01:03+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-11-18T14:29:53+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-11-18T14:28:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2025-11-18T03:36:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7d50fa9f-edd6-45b9-a46d-2df0abf8d3f9","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 8th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[{"id":59233712,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering"},{"id":59233713,"name":"Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-15T11:41:14+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-08 04:59:23","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8140510","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8140510","identity":"rs-8140510","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}