Global hotspots of unprecedented tropical cyclone risk for targeted adaptation

Global hotspots of unprecedented tropical cyclone risk for targeted adaptation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Global hotspots of unprecedented tropical cyclone risk for targeted adaptation Itxaso Oderiz, Inigo J. Losada, Jochen Hinkel This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7535130/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are projected to intensify and expand into new regions under climate change, exposing millions of people with little or no prior experience of such hazards. These “unprecedented” events—occurring in historically unaffected areas or exceeding existing adaptive capacity—pose unique challenges for adaptation. Here we present the first global, high‑resolution risk assessment that integrates projected changes in TC intensity and frequency, population exposure, and local-to‑national adaptive capacity. We classify 26,570 coastal subnational regions into hazard–capacity types, revealing two categories of particular concern: transitional‑increase regions, where TCs are projected to become more intense or frequent, and neoclimatic regions, where TCs may occur for the first time. By 2050, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, 32% of the global coastal population exposed to TCs is projected to reside in regions transitioning from minor to major TCs, with the majority projected to live in Asia (25%). Meanwhile, the 4% of coastal population is projected to live in neoclimatic regions, including 1% in areas projected to experience unprecedented major TCs, mostly in Asia, Africa, Oceania, and American continent. We link these classifications to tailored adaptation pathways, from incremental upgrades to transformative interventions, offering a framework to prioritize adaptation investments and close emerging cyclone adaptation gaps. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Governance Physical sciences/Engineering unprecedented tropical cyclones climate change adaptation population Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files OdeXXrizetalunprecedentedTCriskSupInfv0.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7535130","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":515219345,"identity":"a8ecdf80-9b93-406f-9257-fdd2225817ae","order_by":0,"name":"Itxaso Oderiz","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA7UlEQVRIie3QLQsCMRjA8WcMLvlSTwT9CopRv4lJhGvrCyoDQYt2g+hX0HJ542BXBlbFoBa7bdfcHSoWd9gE9+cYT9iPbQfgcv1g3mvi6UfNgDGzk5fJiEoJshN4J4Am6ZRDSvVZ86Yp1Erx/CKS1bBbnhqiaWi5mNevFhS0Kipu8EoYk0WEGJqpo4VgXjX36W32AfBmKAkzBKOJjaBxkqTkdAXeW0qyzidY+sXsFA+4YAOyySdB0C4o37wlAMEkJ1tDhO0t9bFqHTTtmD8m8U0PRmS1i8RZ08/kkf8comzlefvfG32z2eVyuf6kOyt1WiL/2oZ0AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6338-1141","institution":"IHCantabria—Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Itxaso","middleName":"","lastName":"Oderiz","suffix":""},{"id":515219346,"identity":"b1d4c0ef-8df2-478b-82ea-4255e098d964","order_by":1,"name":"Inigo J. 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Meanwhile, the 4% of coastal population is projected to live in neoclimatic regions, including 1% in areas projected to experience unprecedented major TCs, mostly in Asia, Africa, Oceania, and American continent. 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