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by claude@2026-07, 2026-07-15
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The study applies a close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) genomic method to estimate adult census size in a short-lived, highly fecund insect, using 714 adult Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes sampled from a small island in Lake Victoria, Uganda. The authors genotype mosquitoes with a high-diversity genome-wide marker panel and classify kin pairs using probabilistic latent-kinship estimation, observing many full-sibling pairs but no parent-offspring pairs, which they attribute to extreme variance in reproductive success from frequent clutch failure. They explicitly model the mosquito life cycle, including clutch failure probability, to estimate adult female census size (26,887 with a wide credible interval) and clutch failure probability (97.6%), and use these to calculate variance in reproductive success and effective population size, validating via individual-based simulations. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.
Abstract
Accurate estimates of adult mosquito abundance are central to the design and evaluation of vector control strategies, yet they are difficult to obtain from natural populations. Conventional mark-recapture methods for estimating adult mosquito census size pose logistical and other challenges. A recently developed close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) approach is a promising alternative. However, application of CKMR has been largely confined to long-lived vertebrates. Validation on empirical data from short-lived, highly fecund insects is lacking. Here, we apply CKMR to a natural population of Anopheles gambiae , the primary African malaria mosquito, sampled from a small island in Lake Victoria, Uganda. Using a high-diversity amplicon panel of genome-wide markers, we genotyped 714 adult mosquitoes collected over a 20-day period. We classified pairs to close-kin categories by implementing probabilistic latent-kinship estimation rather than using a deterministic threshold-based framework. We observe numerous full-sibling pairs but no parent-offspring pairs, a pattern indicative of extreme variance in reproductive success owing to frequent failure of mosquito egg clutches to produce adults. To adapt the CKMR framework to mosquito life history, we explicitly modeled the mosquito life cycle including the possibility of clutch failure. By incorporating probabilities of both parent-offspring and full-sibling relationships, we estimate an adult female census size of 26,887 (95% credible interval: 6,979 - 146,011), and a clutch failure probability of 97.6% (CrI: 91.3 - 99.6%). We use these estimates to calculate the predicted variance in reproductive success and effective population size. Through individual-based simulations we confirm our estimates and the necessity of modeling reproductive variance to explain observed kinship patterns. Our results demonstrate that CKMR can be applied successfully to mosquitoes, provided that appropriate adjustments are made to account for their natural history.
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Abstract
Accurate estimates of adult mosquito abundance are central to the design and evaluation of vector control strategies, yet they are difficult to obtain from natural populations. Conventional mark-recapture methods for estimating adult mosquito census size pose logistical and other challenges. A recently developed close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) approach is a promising alternative. However, application of CKMR has been largely confined to long-lived vertebrates. Validation on empirical data from short-lived, highly fecund insects is lacking. Here, we apply CKMR to a natural population of Anopheles gambiae, the primary African malaria mosquito, sampled from a small island in Lake Victoria, Uganda. Using a high-diversity amplicon panel of genome-wide markers, we genotyped 714 adult mosquitoes collected over a 20-day period. We classified pairs to close-kin categories by implementing probabilistic latent-kinship estimation rather than using a deterministic threshold-based framework. We observe numerous full-sibling pairs but no parent-offspring pairs, a pattern indicative of extreme variance in reproductive success owing to frequent failure of mosquito egg clutches to produce adults. To adapt the CKMR framework to mosquito life history, we explicitly modeled the mosquito life cycle including the possibility of clutch failure. By incorporating probabilities of both parent-offspring and full-sibling relationships, we estimate an adult female census size of 26,887 (95% credible interval: 6,979 - 146,011), and a clutch failure probability of 97.6% (CrI: 91.3 - 99.6%). We use these estimates to calculate the predicted variance in reproductive success and effective population size. Through individual-based simulations we confirm our estimates and the necessity of modeling reproductive variance to explain observed kinship patterns. Our results demonstrate that CKMR can be applied successfully to mosquitoes, provided that appropriate adjustments are made to account for their natural history.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
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