Emerging Hotspots of Agricultural Drought under Climate Change

Emerging Hotspots of Agricultural Drought under Climate Change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Emerging Hotspots of Agricultural Drought under Climate Change Emily Black, Caroline Wainwright, Richard Allan, Pier Luigi Vidale This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7157368/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Heightened agricultural drought risk is a potentially severe consequence of climate change, yet projections remain uncertain, reflecting both inconsistent precipitation projections and limited understanding of how land–atmosphere interactions shape spatial variations in soil moisture change. Here, we present a novel framework that links climate-driven changes in the land-surface water balance to growing-season soil moisture. A key innovation is the focus on local growing seasons, incorporating both growing-season fluxes and antecedent soil moisture, thus capturing both seasonal hydroclimate drivers and soil moisture memory. By identifying where warming-driven increases in evaporation dominate seasonal water balance trends, the framework enables robust regional projections of drought, notwithstanding precipitation uncertainty. We identify northern and western Europe, southern Africa, and much of northern South America and western North America as emerging agricultural drought hotspots. Across the northern extra-tropics, the ERA5 reanalysis shows a 141% increase in agricultural drought occurrence from 1980–2000 to 2000–2020, consistent with a 36% rise in CMIP6 historical simulations. Projections under SSP5-8.5 indicate a 107% increase by 2070–2090. These results have implications for food security, highlighting the need for drought-resilient adaptation not only in the Global South, but also in extratropical regions where drought risk is already worsening. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7157368","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":493095941,"identity":"ddd35e7c-dad0-452f-8b67-ad2f21078a56","order_by":0,"name":"Emily Black","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABDklEQVRIie3RsUoDMRjA8S8E0iVy6xXv6iuk3Cr6KncUrouDbgc9MEcht4hzRdBXCRykSwbHFjrklk4Ourko5sQOYtPSTST/KYT8+BIC4PP91QzICIAgY9dIbHbDXSQFSS3B7GBCukOI7yMBYGPJiga1yidFcRbfHtdP8FZCdse3kz4nzJI1DXWullqPEhHpS3SjILt3TGHdlVJoKCx6YlkJnInwIoUjDtmDg5xvyIklV9XH9RdB7zsIg2/CFkShijeWjCXuprguFjaEyZSt6VDnoz5X88ROgSZSYeJ6flBPW/NSrAaDuRq+8nISP87GbftcnsYz6RiDASSwH1uUyT0f+aueOei4z+fz/fs+ASe9V8NYCpyPAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Reading","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Emily","middleName":"","lastName":"Black","suffix":""},{"id":493095942,"identity":"22ff3fe4-2ead-4a6d-b493-ee4a614da394","order_by":1,"name":"Caroline Wainwright","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846","institution":"University of Leeds","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Caroline","middleName":"","lastName":"Wainwright","suffix":""},{"id":493095943,"identity":"ab0b9d0d-670f-4a5c-947d-8b3edea48586","order_by":2,"name":"Richard Allan","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447","institution":"University of Reading","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Richard","middleName":"","lastName":"Allan","suffix":""},{"id":493095944,"identity":"4b82012b-8a62-49b0-9b70-853cbe870708","order_by":3,"name":"Pier Luigi Vidale","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460","institution":"University of Reading","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pier","middleName":"Luigi","lastName":"Vidale","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-18 11:50:22","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7157368/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7157368/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01898-8","type":"published","date":"2026-01-14T05:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100296103,"identity":"076437de-e850-4a78-b6d9-0c119d4fb0a6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-15 08:13:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4850691,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"blacketalsubmitted.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7157368/v1_covered_63a35ab0-6862-4897-908f-0e8e4fa49373.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Emerging Hotspots of Agricultural Drought under Climate Change","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7157368/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7157368/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Heightened agricultural drought risk is a potentially severe consequence of climate change, yet projections remain uncertain, reflecting both inconsistent precipitation projections and limited understanding of how land–atmosphere interactions shape spatial variations in soil moisture change. 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