Rapid increase of Care Homes reporting outbreaks a sign of eventual substantial disease burden

Enclosed societies (i.e. locations that are connected to wider community only by subgroups of their population and that are dominated by within society transmission) have the potential, upon establishment of a respiratory disease, to suffer a large proportion of the population within becoming infected. Care homes are particularly susceptible to COVID19 outbreaks and suffer high mortality due to vulnerable population within. Recent data on the number of new outbreak reports in care homes to Public Health England shows an initial increase then plateau perhaps associated with an SIS model dynamic. Without change in policy moving forward a high prevalence in such setting is predicted of around 75%. Action is needed to support staff in such settings.