Storylines for month-long heatwaves and associated heat-related mortality impacts over Western Europe

Storylines for month-long heatwaves and associated heat-related mortality impacts over Western Europe | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Storylines for month-long heatwaves and associated heat-related mortality impacts over Western Europe Samuel Lüthi, Veronika Huber, Mathilde Pascal, Urs Beyerle, Maria Pyrina, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5356341/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Countless heat records were broken in recent years, leading to thousands of heat-related deaths. This raises the question of how much worse heat-related mortality could become in coming years if a potential worst-case heatwave lasts for several weeks or reaches unprecedented intensity. Here, we develop impact storylines for worst-case heatwaves and associated heat-related mortality in France, Germany, and Switzerland. We compare several physical climate storyline approaches to quantify plausible extreme heatwaves and combine these with empirical heat-mortality relationships. We find physically consistent week-long heatwaves possible in the climate of 2020 that exceed the observed 7-day record temperatures by more than 5°C and associated mortality impacts exceeding the observed maximum by 30-90%. Even more severe consequences would arise from possible five-week heat periods of unprecedented intensity, which would lead to more than a doubling of impacts. Developing these impact storylines can inform the stress-testing of socio-economic systems for preparing appropriate emergency response capacities. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Resultscitylevel35day241029.csv Location level information 35-day heatwave SuppFigures12forBERPAR.pdf Resultscitylevel7day241029.csv Location level information 7-day heatwave Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5356341","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":384380490,"identity":"462f8009-e402-49e4-aa05-0cbe3cddc7e0","order_by":0,"name":"Samuel Lüthi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABGElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNCCAgYZIMnGkFABFWBsABIS+LQYMPAwMDADtZyBChwkWgtjGxFa5NtPp0l8AGoxON5/7MHDeYftDc4fYHz8cUcdA//sBuzmn8ndJjkDpOXMYXaDxG2HEzfcSGA2OHiGjUHizgEcTsrdJs0D0nIjmU0CqCXB4AYDm8TBNh4GA4kE7A7rf7tN+g9Iy/3HQC1zwA5j/3GwTQKnFoYbQFsYwLYwA7U0HGbccCCBjeFgmwFOLQY33m627DGQ4JE8k2wmkXAsPXHmjcRmibNtCTwSN3A5LHfjjR8VNnJ8xw8+k/xRY23Pd/7wwQ+VbXVy/DNwOAwCkKJA4QA46kExRSyQbyBe7SgYBaNgFIwMAADLhV4+ib6HPQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2884-3467","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Samuel","middleName":"","lastName":"Lüthi","suffix":""},{"id":384380491,"identity":"fa03e0bb-cf10-4d57-ab97-6de162b0bbfd","order_by":1,"name":"Veronika Huber","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9633-2752","institution":"Doñana Biological Station - CSIC","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Veronika","middleName":"","lastName":"Huber","suffix":""},{"id":384380492,"identity":"4ef5d29a-a3b5-4109-8499-ed93f72325f9","order_by":2,"name":"Mathilde Pascal","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mathilde","middleName":"","lastName":"Pascal","suffix":""},{"id":384380493,"identity":"80a24e8c-a7e7-4b28-8494-037021bbffb5","order_by":3,"name":"Urs Beyerle","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6464-0838","institution":"Swiss Federal Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Urs","middleName":"","lastName":"Beyerle","suffix":""},{"id":384380494,"identity":"6a459599-7459-459b-9583-9599214e495b","order_by":4,"name":"Maria Pyrina","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4890-0732","institution":"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maria","middleName":"","lastName":"Pyrina","suffix":""},{"id":384380495,"identity":"aae07c95-47b0-4b98-b45b-a42f00ee0552","order_by":5,"name":"Daniela Domeisen","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1463-929X","institution":"University of Lausanne / ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniela","middleName":"","lastName":"Domeisen","suffix":""},{"id":384380496,"identity":"6af73cb1-320d-4ff5-8e17-79ef1aaeea23","order_by":6,"name":"Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ana","middleName":"M.","lastName":"Vicedo-Cabrera","suffix":""},{"id":384380497,"identity":"484e1636-e4ab-4988-8c74-c18a79664777","order_by":7,"name":"Erich Fischer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1931-6737","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Erich","middleName":"","lastName":"Fischer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-29 17:50:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5356341/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5356341/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91094965,"identity":"c106c160-64aa-4390-8509-1c0e04795b95","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-11 13:55:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1866758,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"HeatMortStoylinesNCC.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5356341/v1_covered_be29b93c-3fe1-408b-91e3-76475b25b78f.pdf"},{"id":70568740,"identity":"830942b4-f293-4ee7-a2c0-3521b1eadaca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-04 13:13:38","extension":"csv","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":5580,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Location level information 35-day heatwave","description":"","filename":"Resultscitylevel35day241029.csv","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5356341/v1/6207928c7959e4db4cfbc69b.csv"},{"id":70567450,"identity":"860c65f6-1a76-4db7-9fc1-f6b1be22a7ad","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-04 13:05:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":803491,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"SuppFigures12forBERPAR.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5356341/v1/90e289c4357e0896898abef5.pdf"},{"id":70568741,"identity":"0e98350c-9aaa-410f-8aad-12cc725752bc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-04 13:13:38","extension":"csv","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":5580,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Location level information 7-day heatwave","description":"","filename":"Resultscitylevel7day241029.csv","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5356341/v1/50f91bce2b909d417d19dcf2.csv"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Storylines for month-long heatwaves and associated heat-related mortality impacts over Western Europe","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5356341/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5356341/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Countless heat records were broken in recent years, leading to thousands of heat-related deaths. This raises the question of how much worse heat-related mortality could become in coming years if a potential worst-case heatwave lasts for several weeks or reaches unprecedented intensity. Here, we develop impact storylines for worst-case heatwaves and associated heat-related mortality in France, Germany, and Switzerland. We compare several physical climate storyline approaches to quantify plausible extreme heatwaves and combine these with empirical heat-mortality relationships. We find physically consistent week-long heatwaves possible in the climate of 2020 that exceed the observed 7-day record temperatures by more than 5°C and associated mortality impacts exceeding the observed maximum by 30-90%. Even more severe consequences would arise from possible five-week heat periods of unprecedented intensity, which would lead to more than a doubling of impacts. Developing these impact storylines can inform the stress-testing of socio-economic systems for preparing appropriate emergency response capacities.","manuscriptTitle":"Storylines for month-long heatwaves and associated heat-related mortality impacts over Western Europe","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-12-04 13:05:34","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5356341/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-climate-change","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nclimate","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Climate Change](http://www.nature.com/nclimate/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Climate Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"2c38e4d2-3ccf-409e-be5a-929cf98b1530","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 4th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":40953789,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health"},{"id":40953790,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-23T13:21:45+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-12-04 13:05:34","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5356341","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5356341","identity":"rs-5356341","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}