Direct and indirect effects of high temperatures on fledging success in a cooperatively breeding bird

High temperatures and low rainfall consistently constrain reproduction in arid-zone bird species. Understanding the mechanisms underlying this pattern is critical for predicting how climate change will influence population persistence and to inform conservation and management. In this study, we analysed Southern Pied Babbler Turdoides nestling survival, daily growth rate and adult investment behaviour during the nestling period over three austral summer breeding seasons. High temperatures were associated with lower body mass, shorter tarsi, and reduced daily growth rates of nestlings. Piecewise structural equation modelling suggests that direct impacts of temperature had the strongest influence, followed by changes in provisioning rates by adults to older nestlings. Adjustments to adult provisioning strategies did not compensate for direct negative effects of high air temperatures on nestling body mass, tarsus and wing length, or daily growth rates. Declining reproductive success during hot weather poses a potentially serious threat to population replacement and persistence as climate change progresses, even for currently common and widespread species. Significantly lower offspring survival as a result of climate warming will likely contribute to the collapse of animal communities well before temperatures regularly approach or exceed lethal tolerance limits. Detailed mechanistic data like these allow us to model the pathways by which high temperature causes nest failure. In turn, this could allow us to design targeted conservation action to effectively mitigate climate effects.