Six-fold reduction in ocean heat content estimate uncertainty since 1960

Six-fold reduction in ocean heat content estimate uncertainty since 1960 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Six-fold reduction in ocean heat content estimate uncertainty since 1960 Lijing Cheng, Huifeng Yuan, Yuying Pan, Bin Zhang, Benoît Meyssignac, and 13 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9248956/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Ocean heat content (OHC) is a crucial climate indicator and provides an estimate of Earth’s energy imbalance, but its accuracy and uncertainty have not been fully understood. Here, we constructed a Large-Ensemble to comprehensively quantify the OHC uncertainty from global to regional scales since 1955, and consider eight groups of error sources based on the community’s efforts. We find a six-fold reduction in the global upper 2000 m OHC estimated uncertainty (5–95% quartile error range) since 1955 from ~ 111 ZJ (1955–1965) to ~ 19 ZJ (2014–2023), attributed to the reduction of errors from all sources especially mapping/sampling. This indicates a robust upper 2000 m OHC increase since 1955 of 449 [385, 519] ZJ. Quality-Control (QC) has emerged as a primary error source in the recent decade, because of the difficulties in detecting outliers in large perturbations in eddy-rich regions. The trend uncertainty has different sources from the annual OHC: from 2005–2023, the upper 2000m OHC trend is 10.9 [9.2, 11.4] ZJ yr − 1 or equivalently 0.68 [0.57, 0.71] Wm − 2 , with uncertainty mainly stemming from spatial gaps and mapping errors, QC, and climatology choice. An increase in ocean warming rate from 2005–2023 is small but robust: 0.34 [0.19, 0.46] Wm − 2 dec − 1 . The comprehensive OHC uncertainty estimates provide a basis for model evaluation and a guide for future improvements in the global ocean observing system. Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9248956","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":618919345,"identity":"bcd16f6d-161c-43ae-ae01-64e656942cab","order_by":0,"name":"Lijing 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1960","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9248956/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9248956/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eOcean heat content (OHC) is a crucial climate indicator and provides an estimate of Earth\u0026rsquo;s energy imbalance, but its accuracy and uncertainty have not been fully understood. Here, we constructed a Large-Ensemble to comprehensively quantify the OHC uncertainty from global to regional scales since 1955, and consider eight groups of error sources based on the community\u0026rsquo;s efforts. We find a six-fold reduction in the global upper 2000 m OHC estimated uncertainty (5\u0026ndash;95% quartile error range) since 1955 from ~\u0026thinsp;111 ZJ (1955\u0026ndash;1965) to ~\u0026thinsp;19 ZJ (2014\u0026ndash;2023), attributed to the reduction of errors from all sources especially mapping/sampling. This indicates a robust upper 2000 m OHC increase since 1955 of 449 [385, 519] ZJ. Quality-Control (QC) has emerged as a primary error source in the recent decade, because of the difficulties in detecting outliers in large perturbations in eddy-rich regions. The trend uncertainty has different sources from the annual OHC: from 2005\u0026ndash;2023, the upper 2000m OHC trend is 10.9 [9.2, 11.4] ZJ yr\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e or equivalently 0.68 [0.57, 0.71] Wm\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2\u003c/sup\u003e, with uncertainty mainly stemming from spatial gaps and mapping errors, QC, and climatology choice. An increase in ocean warming rate from 2005\u0026ndash;2023 is small but robust: 0.34 [0.19, 0.46] Wm\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2\u003c/sup\u003e dec\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e. The comprehensive OHC uncertainty estimates provide a basis for model evaluation and a guide for future improvements in the global ocean observing system.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Six-fold reduction in ocean heat content estimate uncertainty since 1960","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-08 04:03:40","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9248956/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7ffe79df-167b-459b-959d-c68d2506a1d5","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 8th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"This content is not available.","date":"2026-05-08T05:43:44+00:00","index":2,"fulltext":"This content is not available."},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"This content is not available.","date":"2026-05-01T12:50:26+00:00","index":1,"fulltext":"This content is not available."}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":65857357,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences"},{"id":65857358,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-08T04:03:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-08 04:03:40","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9248956","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9248956","identity":"rs-9248956","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}