Spring migration passage advances are counteracted by range shifts

Spring migration passage advances are counteracted by range shifts | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 29 January 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Spring migration passage advances are counteracted by range shifts Authors : Andreas Otterbeck 0000-0003-2101-6469 [email protected] and Andreas Linden Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176970084.44224255/v1 130 views 73 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Quantitatively assessing species’ responses to climate change is central to contemporary ecology, amid concern that these responses may be insufficient to track accelerating environmental change. In birds, advancing the timing of spring migration is a key mechanism for matching warming conditions, and is commonly inferred from long-term series of passage dates recorded at fixed observatories. While such data are abundant, they may be biased when used as proxies for arrival at breeding grounds. As many migratory species shift their breeding ranges poleward, returning individuals increasingly head for higher latitudes where spring—and hence optimal arrival—occurs later. Tracking this timing, they must migrate correspondingly later, causing species-level passage records to occur at relatively later dates for range-shifting species compared to background trends in local arrival to breeding grounds. Consequently, long-term passage trends may simultaneously reflect advances in arrival phenology and changes in breeding destinations. We re-examined published migration trends of 33 bird species from four Nordic observatories, relating them to range-shift velocities derived from Finnish breeding-bird surveys. Species with faster northward shifts showed apparent delays in early-phase passage, but only among short-distance migrants (SDM). The difference between observed trends in passage dates and expected arrival could be several days—sometimes even reversing the trend. No corresponding effects were detected in mid- or late phases of migration or among long-distance migrants (LDM). Our findings reveal the need to account for shifting breeding destinations when studying passage-date time series. This is essential for accurately assessing avian responses to climate change. Supplementary Material File (ms_submit_ed.pdf) Download 604.79 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 29 January 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords climate change passage dates phenology range shifts spring arrival Authors Affiliations Andreas Otterbeck 0000-0003-2101-6469 [email protected] Novia University of Applied Sciences - Campus Raseborg View all articles by this author Andreas Linden Natural Resources Institute Finland View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 130 views 73 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Andreas Otterbeck, Andreas Linden. Spring migration passage advances are counteracted by range shifts. Authorea . 29 January 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176970084.44224255/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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