Atmospheric forcing and ocean preconditioning for dense shelf water cascading in the northwestern Mediterranean

Atmospheric forcing and ocean preconditioning for dense shelf water cascading in the northwestern Mediterranean | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Atmospheric forcing and ocean preconditioning for dense shelf water cascading in the northwestern Mediterranean Helena Fos, Anna Sanchez-Vidal, Jesús Peña-Izquierdo, Víctor Estella-Pérez, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8620388/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Dense shelf water cascading (DSWC) in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea occurs due to the densification and overflow of shelf water in winter. This process ventilates the deep basin with waters that can be denser than those generated by open-ocean convection. Between 1987 and 2021 (i.e., 35 winter periods), shelf water reached depths greater than 1000 m on only 9 occasions, and open questions remain regarding the triggering factors and inhibitors for these deep DSWC events. Combining atmospheric and ocean reanalysis data, we found that, at interannual scales, the East Atlantic (EA) mode of climate variability is more strongly associated with the thermal components of the atmospheric forcing: air temperature, wind, and sea surface temperature, contributing to a strong connection between the negative phase of EA, and an increased heat loss and buoyancy loss. At shorter synoptic to subseasonal time scales, the dense shelf water formation in winter is linked to the local northerly winds and cold air outbursts. As important as the thermal atmospheric forcing, the evaporation-precipitation balance and river runoff play a key role in facilitating or preventing dense shelf water formation and cascading. Besides, the temperature of surface shelf water at the beginning of winter can be critical. In the years after an intense DSWC event, the favorable preconditioning by advected dense water and reduced intermediate stratification enhances deep cascading. These insights are meaningful for how the atmospheric and oceanic signals from a changing climate propagate into the deep Mediterranean Sea, which ultimately could affect the thermohaline circulation. Buoyancy flux Tramuntana Reanalysis Shelf water East Atlantic pattern Full Text Supplementary Files Fosetal2026supplements.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 29 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 10 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 08 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 01 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8620388","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":588898412,"identity":"a77bb987-20d7-4248-a800-222305b2fe37","order_by":0,"name":"Helena 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