Machine Learning Strategies for Forecasting Mannosylerythritol Lipid Production in Fermentation Processes

Fermentations are complex and often unpredictable processes. However, fermentation-based bioprocesses generate large volumes of data that are currently underexplored. These data can be used to develop data-driven models, such as machine learning (ML), to improve process predictability. Among various fermentation products, biosurfactants have emerged as promising candidates for several industrial applications. Nevertheless, biosurfactant large-scale production is not yet cost-effective. This study aims to develop forecasting methods for the concentration of mannosylerythritol lipids (MELs), a type of biosurfactant, produced in Moesziomyces spp. cultivation. Three ML models, Neural Networks (NN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Random Forests (RF), were used. NN provided predictions with a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.69 for day 4 and 1.63 for day 7, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.58 g/L and 1.1 g/L, respectively. These results indicate that the model’s predictions are sufficiently accurate for practical use, with the MAE showing only minor deviations from the actual concentrations. Both results are promising, as they demonstrate the possibility of obtaining reliable predictions of MELs production for days 4 and 7 of fermentation. This, in turn, could help reduce process-related costs, enhancing its economic viability.