Rethinking pluralistic ignorance: People systematically under- and overestimate public engagement in climate action

Globally, people underestimate others’ support for climate action—a phenomenon known as pluralistic ignorance. This misperception is seen as a major barrier to collective climate engagement, and correcting it is viewed as a way to boost action. However, little is known about whether pluralistic ignorance actually occurs regarding consequential behavior, what mechanisms underlie it, and whether correcting it changes actual behavior. Across five preregistered experiments (total N = 5,081), we replicated underestimation of broad support, but found that pluralistic ignorance reverses for rare, consequential behaviors: Participants overestimated the proportion of others donating or engaging politically for climate action. We further show that rational, general cognitive processes involved in estimating proportions can account for both under- and overestimations. Finally, correcting these misperceptions partly affected self-reported donation willingness, but not actual donations. These findings suggest that pluralistic ignorance in the climate domain may be more intricate and less consequential than previously thought.