Association Between Triglyceride Glucose Index and Risk of New-onset Diabetes Among Chinese Adults: Findings From the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

Background: The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index has been proposed to be a simple surrogate of insulin resistance. We aimed to examine the relationship between TyG index and risk of incident diabetes in middle-age and elderly adults in China.MethodsNationally representative data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011-2015 were used. Sociodemographic, medical, anthropometric, and laboratory information were collected following a standard protocol. Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline regression were performed to estimate hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of diabetes for TyG index. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to examine potential interactions. ResultsOf 7428 participants without at baseline diabetes, 791 (10.6%) participants developed diabetes over 3.4 years of follow-up. The multivariate HR for every SD increase in TyG index was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.14-1.31). When dividing TyG index into quartiles, the multivariate HRs for new-onset diabetes were 1.22 (0.96-1.54) for Q2, 1.61 (1.28-2.01) for Q3, and 1.73 (1.38-2.16) for Q4 (P for trend < 0.001) compared with Q1. The restricted cubic spline regression confirmed a linear association. No interaction was found between subgroup variables and association of TyG index with risk of diabetes.ConclusionTyG index was significantly and positively associated with risk of new-onset diabetes in middle-aged and elderly adults. TyG index may be a useful predictive marker for predicting new-onset diabetes.