Mathematical Modeling of Norovirus Outbreaks: Assessing Intervention Strategies

Mathematical Modeling of Norovirus Outbreaks: Assessing Intervention Strategies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Mathematical Modeling of Norovirus Outbreaks: Assessing Intervention Strategies Jufren Zakayo Ndendya, James David, Dickson Bahaye, Leonce Leandry, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3856806/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Norovirus, a highly contagious pathogen responsible for numerous outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness, poses a significant public health challenge. In this study, we investigate the intricate dynamics of Norovirus transmission by analyzing the relationships between critical parameters and employing effective intervention strategies. Our analysis leverages mathematical modeling, data-driven insights, and visualization tools. Through a series of contour plots, we examine the impact of parameters such as the effective contact rate (β), vaccination rate (θ), treatment rate (ω), and vaccine efficacy on the effective reproduction number (Re). Notably, an increase in vaccination rate and vaccine efficacy leads to a substantial decrease in the number of exposed and infected individuals, underlining the pivotal role of vaccination in disease control. Furthermore, we explore the combined effects of treatment and vaccination strategies, highlighting their synergistic potential. A higher treatment rate (ω), coupled with increased vaccination coverage (θ), results in a notable reduction in disease transmission, particularly when both strategies exhibit high efficacy. These findings underscore the importance of comprehensive public health measures. In conclusion, our study provides valuable insights into Norovirus disease dynamics and the effectiveness of intervention strategies. By understanding the intricate interplay of parameters and the potential of combined approaches, we offer a foundation for informed decision-making in public health. These insights have the potential to guide policy recommendations and advance efforts to combat Norovirus, ultimately improving public health outcomes and reducing the burden of this pervasive pathogen. Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Norovirus disease dynamics mathematical modeling intervention strategies vaccination treatment effective reproduction number Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3856806","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":266680525,"identity":"0b0f8986-0e9a-47e0-853d-ac809df1ece3","order_by":0,"name":"Jufren Zakayo Ndendya","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgbGBxCagcGAgaECyGRmbiCghdkAScsZkBZG/FqAKpC0MLbB2Pg0zEhm+/Bxxx3ZfunmbRI/59VG87cDtfyo2IbbYTOSmWfOPPPMeOacY2WSvduO5844DPRfz5nbeLTkH2bmbTucuOFGjpkE77ZjuQ1ALcyMbfi0JDMz/wVq2Q/UIvl3zrHc+URpYQTZIpFjJs3bUJO7gaCWnsfMjL1th41n3EgrtpY5diB3I1DLQXx+MWxPZmb42XZYtn9G8sabb2rqcuedP3zwwY8KPFoaEGwWCQaGw2DWAZzqgUAeic38gYGhDp/iUTAKRsEoGKEAACEkYObOS5TfAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. 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In this study, we investigate the intricate dynamics of Norovirus transmission by analyzing the relationships between critical parameters and employing effective intervention strategies. Our analysis leverages mathematical modeling, data-driven insights, and visualization tools. Through a series of contour plots, we examine the impact of parameters such as the effective contact rate (β), vaccination rate (θ), treatment rate (ω), and vaccine efficacy on the effective reproduction number (Re). Notably, an increase in vaccination rate and vaccine efficacy leads to a substantial decrease in the number of exposed and infected individuals, underlining the pivotal role of vaccination in disease control. Furthermore, we explore the combined effects of treatment and vaccination strategies, highlighting their synergistic potential. 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