Coral Reefs at the Edge: Climate-Microbial Feedbacks and Ecosystem Collapse

Coral Reefs at the Edge: Climate-Microbial Feedbacks and Ecosystem Collapse | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Coral Reefs at the Edge: Climate-Microbial Feedbacks and Ecosystem Collapse Pooja Rani, Parimita Roy This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9145076/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Coral reefs are experiencing rapid degradation driven by environmental stressors, including rising sea temperatures and hypoxia, which compromise coral health, reduce growth and resilience, and threaten biodiversity. Temperature stress, in particular, increases susceptibility to disease and bleaching, while elevated organic matter and nutrient inputs promote the proliferation of heterotrophic bacteria, further destabilizing reef ecosystems. To investigate these complex dynamics, we develop a three-species ecological model encompassing corals, bacteria, and oxygen, aimed at elucidating the mechanisms underlying coral decline and potential ecosystem collapse. We conduct stability and bifurcation analyses to explore system responses to varying environmental pressures and extend the model into a reaction-advection-diffusion framework to capture spatial and temporal dynamics. Extensive numerical simulations examine a wide range of ecological outcomes, while Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) analysis identifies the parameters most strongly influencing system behavior. Our results reveal that rising temperatures can drive irreversible coral extinction and shift the ecosystem to alternative, less resilient states, underscoring the urgency of detecting early warning signals and mitigating stressors before collapse occurs. This study provides a mechanistic understanding of coral-bacteria-oxygen interactions and offers critical insights into preserving reef resilience in the face of accelerating climate change. Coral decline Hypoxia Global warming Conservation measures Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 08 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 24 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 24 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 17 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9145076","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":627731368,"identity":"2d4afbad-83b9-4a5e-9e67-b0ad46d46ad6","order_by":0,"name":"Pooja Rani","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Thapar Institute of Engineering \u0026 Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pooja","middleName":"","lastName":"Rani","suffix":""},{"id":627731369,"identity":"662b4757-4cfb-4517-9dad-6d2c5d176e77","order_by":1,"name":"Parimita Roy","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8UlEQVRIie3RoQrCQBzH8TtOtJxahYF7hRPBOXT4KpPBrSyYzCbTwLrHWBPb9MCm1gWDFvPAsqDg382BCDeNhvum48c+3OAQUqn+tAix1ymBc171K8kNDuwfCZQTQn8hRm133sSTm440sdWs9KjDckLJVEiJ6btMeIx1Zg3ONc++dFaw4GAvJyzi6EnwjNIeEIFDWEh9XkIOl4yMMtK3xSiEhdzLSJzfMs4IssU4hIXgEmIG2S1dZ06rjulz4axgWft7V0qMJidX79a2FpSs43QorGWT41M6Hch/rDjAQ1RaxRJJv38nEEk+F5VKpVI9ewCdA1S9u7g8pQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Thapar Institute of Engineering \u0026 Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Parimita","middleName":"","lastName":"Roy","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-17 06:54:02","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9145076/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9145076/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108181605,"identity":"e54596e7-e742-463f-a483-f4366fcb887c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-30 08:58:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2520924,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Theoreticalecology.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9145076/v1_covered_77c6a682-3abd-4091-8a1f-0b764267e2e0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Coral Reefs at the Edge: Climate-Microbial Feedbacks and Ecosystem Collapse","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"thee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical Ecology](https://www.springer.com/journal/12080)","snPcode":"12080","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12080/3","title":"Theoretical Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Coral decline, Hypoxia, Global warming, Conservation measures","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9145076/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9145076/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":" Coral reefs are experiencing rapid degradation driven by environmental stressors, including rising sea temperatures and hypoxia, which compromise coral health, reduce growth and resilience, and threaten biodiversity. 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Our results reveal that rising temperatures can drive irreversible coral extinction and shift the ecosystem to alternative, less resilient states, underscoring the urgency of detecting early warning signals and mitigating stressors before collapse occurs. 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