Spatiotemporal trends of Cryo-Climatic Parameters in the Chandra Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India 

Spatiotemporal trends of Cryo-Climatic Parameters in the Chandra Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatiotemporal trends of Cryo-Climatic Parameters in the Chandra Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India Abhinav Rai, Pankaj Kumar, Shipra Singh, Anish Kumar Rai This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8923464/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Globally, the cryosphere is very sensitive to Earth’s changing climate. The Himalayan cryosphere is the critical source of water for millions of people downstream. The present study conducted a long-term (1950–2024) spatiotemporal trend analysis of cryo-climatic parameters in the high-altitude Chandra Basin in Himachal Himalaya. The study utilised the ERA5-Land reanalysis high-resolution (0.1° x 0.1°) dataset and analysed five key Cryo-climatic parameters: temperature, total precipitation, rainfall, snowfall, and snow depth trends across monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales at both basin-wide and grid-wise scales. The study has used a multi-method statistical framework, including the Mann-Kendall & Sen’s Slope, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test, to detect monotonic and sub-trends. The result shows a significant warming trend (+ 0.15°C/decade), with seasonal warming during the monsoon (+ 0.02°C/year), winter, and pre-monsoon. SQMK shows that an accelerated upward trend started around 1990. The annual total precipitation is declining in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. Annual rainfall shows a significant upward trend (+ 1.15 mm/year), whereas snowfall declines substantially (-3.0 mm/year), indicating a phase shift in precipitation. The snow fraction (0.121%/year) is declining, and the mean snow depth is decreasing (-42 mm/decade) in the critical pre-monsoon (MAM) season. Spatial analysis shows that the eastern, higher-elevation glacierized areas are experiencing drying trends, while monsoon rainfall has increased in the western, lower-elevation areas. These warming temperatures are driving precipitation phase shifts and subsequent cryospheric degradation, posing significant risks to the regional cryosphere, water security, and downstream agriculture and ecosystem sustainability. Himalayan Cryosphere Climate Change Cryo-climatic Parameters Precipitation phase-shift Trend Analysis Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryData.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 04 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 03 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 28 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 26 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 12 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 04 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 20 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8923464","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":608000033,"identity":"b82bc136-2abc-4e55-ab0d-c473d614c54a","order_by":0,"name":"Abhinav Rai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Delhi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abhinav","middleName":"","lastName":"Rai","suffix":""},{"id":608000035,"identity":"37bf9479-9da4-43ad-ac27-f871da10d262","order_by":1,"name":"Pankaj Kumar","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA70lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACZgYGHiBmSGB8ACR5+EjRwmwA0sJGnBYwTmCTAHEJajFnP3vY4IeMtT0/e45Z5dccOxk2BuaHj27g0WLZk5ec2MOTnjiz543ZbdltyUCHsRkb5+DRYnAgx/gAD8/hBIMbOWa3JbcxA7XwsEnj1XL+jfHBPzyH7e2BWoolt9UToeVGjnEy0BbGDRI5Zowftx0mrMVyxhtjYxmgX2aceVYszbjtOA8bMwG/mPPnGEu+7QGGWHvyxo8/t1UDg6754WO8DgMRjD0QDjMPmMSjHK6F4QeEw/iDgOpRMApGwSgYmQAANmpCaFx+OA4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Delhi","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pankaj","middleName":"","lastName":"Kumar","suffix":""},{"id":608000036,"identity":"31eba02b-21d0-42ae-8e6e-a295b58e0dce","order_by":2,"name":"Shipra Singh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Delhi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shipra","middleName":"","lastName":"Singh","suffix":""},{"id":608000037,"identity":"526c31d8-fc58-44d0-bda6-8b3596591846","order_by":3,"name":"Anish Kumar Rai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Delhi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anish","middleName":"Kumar","lastName":"Rai","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-20 07:55:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8923464/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8923464/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105035498,"identity":"0c10b371-da94-47d7-927a-b3591a32db2a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-20 07:26:12","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2216991,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptGeoscience.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8923464/v1_covered_87dc6e43-7e20-47ea-b305-a61e040a2e11.pdf"},{"id":105007569,"identity":"8d2a3bea-00a5-4b82-8b2d-b38384bc52ed","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-19 18:55:39","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":27057895,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryData.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8923464/v1/3741a9f9ebbb061df4c44371.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Spatiotemporal trends of Cryo-Climatic Parameters in the Chandra Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India ","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-geoscience","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Geoscience](https://www.springer.com/journal/44288)","snPcode":"44288","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44288","title":"Discover Geoscience","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate Change, Cryo-climatic Parameters, Precipitation phase-shift, Trend Analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8923464/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8923464/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eGlobally, the cryosphere is very sensitive to Earth\u0026rsquo;s changing climate. The Himalayan cryosphere is the critical source of water for millions of people downstream. The present study conducted a long-term (1950\u0026ndash;2024) spatiotemporal trend analysis of cryo-climatic parameters in the high-altitude Chandra Basin in Himachal Himalaya. The study utilised the ERA5-Land reanalysis high-resolution (0.1\u0026deg; x 0.1\u0026deg;) dataset and analysed five key Cryo-climatic parameters: temperature, total precipitation, rainfall, snowfall, and snow depth trends across monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales at both basin-wide and grid-wise scales. The study has used a multi-method statistical framework, including the Mann-Kendall \u0026amp; Sen\u0026rsquo;s Slope, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test, to detect monotonic and sub-trends. The result shows a significant warming trend (+\u0026thinsp;0.15\u0026deg;C/decade), with seasonal warming during the monsoon (+\u0026thinsp;0.02\u0026deg;C/year), winter, and pre-monsoon. SQMK shows that an accelerated upward trend started around 1990. The annual total precipitation is declining in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. Annual rainfall shows a significant upward trend (+\u0026thinsp;1.15 mm/year), whereas snowfall declines substantially (-3.0 mm/year), indicating a phase shift in precipitation. The snow fraction (0.121%/year) is declining, and the mean snow depth is decreasing (-42 mm/decade) in the critical pre-monsoon (MAM) season. Spatial analysis shows that the eastern, higher-elevation glacierized areas are experiencing drying trends, while monsoon rainfall has increased in the western, lower-elevation areas. These warming temperatures are driving precipitation phase shifts and subsequent cryospheric degradation, posing significant risks to the regional cryosphere, water security, and downstream agriculture and ecosystem sustainability.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Spatiotemporal trends of Cryo-Climatic Parameters in the Chandra Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India ","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-19 18:55:32","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8923464/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-05-04T08:37:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-03T06:15:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-28T10:05:22+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-26T14:51:02+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"79510398596281212018491329959518361109","date":"2026-03-18T05:24:21+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"247097180435116950110798990591896421294","date":"2026-03-17T10:11:53+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"171794489933508834801276460998235784307","date":"2026-03-16T14:09:00+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-03-16T10:37:20+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-03-12T18:18:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-03-04T06:45:03+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-03-04T06:42:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Geoscience","date":"2026-02-20T07:23:48+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-geoscience","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Geoscience](https://www.springer.com/journal/44288)","snPcode":"44288","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44288","title":"Discover Geoscience","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"c73c32b0-dd56-4fdf-81d6-cc53a5efbb18","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 19th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-05-04T08:37:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-04T08:53:37+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-19 18:55:32","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8923464","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8923464","identity":"rs-8923464","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}