Thrive or Throttle: The Impact of Government Transfers on Economic Growth in China

Thrive or Throttle: The Impact of Government Transfers on Economic Growth in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Thrive or Throttle: The Impact of Government Transfers on Economic Growth in China Zhibin Chen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3935461/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As a pillar of the fiscal system, fiscal transfers are highly related to the healthy development of society and the economy. But do intergovernmental fiscal transfers promote local economies? Existing literature presents quite controversial results. To obtain confirmative conclusions, this study adopted meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis by evaluating 675 effect sizes from 51 academic studies. The results show transfer payments in China generally promote local economic growth. The effect on county-level governments is stronger than on provincial and municipal governments. Compared with special transfers, general transfers have a greater effect on the economy. Importantly, the driving effect of transfer payments has endogenous and lagged effects. This study’s in-depth analysis of the transfer-growth mechanism, accurate estimation of their correlation, and investigation into the research conclusion differences holds important reference value for improving China's fiscal transfer system. JEL Classification: H77 , H50 , O23 Fiscal transfers Economic growth Meta-analysis Government transfers Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3935461","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":271514907,"identity":"763a6d7a-c4ad-4e0a-bc46-e9df1fde6ef6","order_by":0,"name":"Zhibin Chen","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Sun Yat-sen University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhibin","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-02-07 02:03:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3935461/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3935461/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":55330981,"identity":"d09b11a3-c48a-4e74-a8fb-dd2ba3197a2a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-25 19:32:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":459689,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ThriveorThrottleTheImpactofGovernmentTransfersonEconomicGrowth.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3935461/v1_covered_cc3ff96d-b81c-4000-bcb5-55d7a4bc113d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Thrive or Throttle: The Impact of Government Transfers on Economic Growth in China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Fiscal transfers, Economic growth, Meta-analysis, Government transfers","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3935461/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3935461/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAs a pillar of the fiscal system, fiscal transfers are highly related to the healthy development of society and the economy. 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